Azerbaijan, Baku, March. 1 / Trend A.Badalova /
The growth of non-OPEC oil production (including NGLs, biofuels and refinery processing gains) will average 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2012, Global Energy Studies Centre (CGES) predicts.
In 2011 non-OPEC oil production amounted to 52.4 million bpd, according to OPEC estimates.
According to CGES report on non-OPEC oil production perspectives, Middle Eastern oil production remains highly uncertain for 2012, with violent unrest and international sanctions expected to continue undermining output in Syria and Yemen.
CGES expects OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) oil production growth at 250,000 bpd. FSU oil production is expected to increase by a little over 100,000 bpd.
The CGES have also increased slightly their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2012, raising it from last month's 0.7 percent to just under 0.9 percent (global oil production was around 88 mln bpd in 2011).
"While annual average OECD oil demand is expected to fall by 340,000 bpd, demand growth in the developing world is beginning to look slightly stronger than it did a month ago," CGES said.
According to CGES, the net effect of stronger demand growth and much weaker non-OPEC supply growth is to undermine further the expected stock build in the first quarter of 2012 and as a result Dated Brent prices average close to $116 per barrel in the first quarter of 2012 and $114 per barrel for the year as a whole.
The current Brent price stands at about $122 per barrel.