Expert: Ukraine has no realistic chance to join TANAP
Azerbaijan, Baku, Nov. 23 / Trend A.Badalova /
By having stake in the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) Ukraine wants to increase security of its supply, but this would only be worthwhile if Ukrainian stake allowed the country to take some of the pipeline's supply, Alexander Jackson, the analyst for political risk at Menas Associates in London, focusing on Caspian energy and political issues stated.
"However Ukraine has no realistic chance of joining TANAP," Jackson told Trend via e-mail.
He mentioned that the shares in the project have been distributed in advance. BP, Statoil and Total, which are SOCAR partners on the development project Shah Deniz field and has already expressed their intentions to acquire a stake in TANAP project, according to Jackson, are technically and commercially reliable partners.
At present, a 20 per cent share in TANAP belongs to Turkish BOTAS, while 80 per cent is owned by the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR). SOCAR intends to retain 51 percent of its share in TANAP. Turkey will own 20 percent of the equity. According to the preliminary data, SOCAR partners on Shah Deniz field development project intend to distribute a 29 per cent share in TANAP as follows: Statoil and BP - 12 per cent, Total - five per cent.
Ukraine repeatedly expressed its interest in joining TANAP as a shareholder. Reportedly, the country is interested in taking a stake of up to 10 percent in the project. The country's intention to join TANAP is caused by the interest in diversification of its energy supplies.
Earlier Ukraine offered Shah Deniz consortium to use Ukrainian gas transportation system and storage facilities for gas deliveries to Europe.
Jackson believes that from a geographic point of view, Ukraine makes no sense as a transit country when the aim is to deliver gas to Central Europe and neither Azerbaijan nor Turkey, will agree to using Ukraine's infrastructure.
"The consortium is deciding between Nabucco West and TAP, and has no interest in considering a third option at such a late stage," Jackson said.
However, analyst said that a slightly more realistic prospect for Azerbaijani gas to cross the Black Sea and reach Ukraine might be via either the White Stream pipeline along the seabed or through LNG tankers.
"This would allow an outlet for excess of Azerbaijani gas not being used in TANAP," Jackson said.
TANAP project envisages construction of the pipeline from the eastern border of Turkey to the country's western border to supply gas from Azerbaijani Shah Deniz gas field to Europe through Turkey. The initial capacity of the pipeline is expected to reach 16 billion cubic meters a year. About six billion cubic meters will be delivered to Turkey, and the rest - to Europe.