BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 17
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
By 2050, it is forecasted that a combination of technologies will be used to best satisfy various uses in heavy road transport, Trend reports with reference to the European Hydrogen Backbone report.
“Based on the Gas for Climate 2019 report, the new heavy road transport EU emission standards, and company statements, we assume that by 2050, 35 percent of heavy road freight will be electric, 55 percent will be powered by hydrogen, and 10 percent will be powered by biomethane. In addition, 75 percent of busing is assumed to be electric and 25 percent hydrogen fuel cell. In 2030, electricity accounts for 2 percent of the heavy road energy demand, hydrogen 3 percent, natural gas 29 percent, and diesel 66 percent. By 2050, electricity accounts for 28 percent of the heavy road energy demand, hydrogen 55 percent, biomethane 17 percent, and diesel 0 percent,” the report reads.
In addition to the combination of technologies, the total energy demand for the heavy road transport sector in 2050 is forecasted to be approximately half of the energy demand in 2030, primarily due to improvements in fuel economy of heavy road vehicles. Battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell heavy duty vehicles are assumed to consume approximately 35 percent and 60 percent of the energy of a conventional diesel heavy duty vehicles, respectively. Therefore, the transition to these alternative vehicle technologies leads to a sustainable reduction in energy consumption. In addition, fuel economy improvements can result from a number of additional factors including improvements in heavy duty vehicle aerodynamics, engine mechanics, transmission technologies, and tires, weight reduction, and changes to driving behaviour. Also, a forecasted reduction in distance travelled by medium and heavy freight trucks until 2050 contributes to the reduced energy consumption. Hydrogen demand in heavy road transport is 21 TWh in 2030, increasing to 131 TWh in 2040 and 217 TWh in 2050.
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