BAKU, Azerbaijan, Aug.16
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
There are a number of questions regarding the future of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project amid the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, Francis Perrin, Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS, Rabat) and at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS, Paris), told Trend.
He pointed out that the TAPI gas pipeline project has generated a lot of discussions, comments and studies for a long time but progress on the ground has been very slow for various reasons: security issues linked to the situation inside Afghanistan, financing issues due to the security and economic risks surrounding this project, disputes over the gas prices proposed by Turkmenistan and tensions between Pakistan and India which would be the main buyers of Turkmen gas transported via TAPI.
“Following the fall of Kabul one of the main questions for the future of the TAPI project is the following: will the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan lead or not to greater and lasting security within the country, which could allow the Afghan section of TAPI to be built and operated safely? The answer to this question is key because we are not speaking about a short-term project but a long-term one. Commercial operations would be spread over a 30-year period if the project is completed. It is of course very early to say if it will be the case but the following weeks and months will give us some important indications in this regard.
Another key issue is the attitude of potential lenders, especially the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Islamic Development Bank (IDB). This issue is strongly linked to the future relations between a Taliban-governed Afghanistan and the main shareholders (countries) of these financial institutions. On this count too some more time is needed to see if the Taliban will be economically isolated and sanctioned, which would of course be a very big obstacle for the TAPI project, or if they will be more or less ''welcome'' within the international community and the financial community. Their future behavior as the new masters of Afghanistan will be thoroughly scrutinized. The Taliban are aware of this but what concessions are they really ready to make in order to facilitate the construction of this pipeline?” said the expert.
Perrin went on to add that apart from the internal situation of Afghanistan, which will obviously weigh heavily on the future of the TAPI project, there are other issues which must be solved and which are not at all linked to these security issues.
“The negotiations about gas prices have not been completed and there is a gap between what Turkmenistan is asking for and what buyers are ready to pay ; Pakistan is interested in importing natural gas from Turkmenistan but this country has other options, mainly the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and a gas pipeline project from Iran ; the future evolution of the Washington-Tehran relationship will have a strong impact on this Iran-Pakistan (or Iran-Pakistan-India) project ; and it remains to be seen if India is really determined to import gas via a pipeline transiting through its best foe, Pakistan. It is a big strategic risk and India also has other gas options, in particular the import of LNG. India was the fourth-largest LNG importer in 2020 behind Japan, China and South Korea in this order. India's LNG imports have more than tripled over the last ten years. The TAPI project is facing a lot of uncertainties as regards security within Afghanistan, its financing, commercial issues (gas prices), competition from other gas projects and the India-Pakistan very strong tensions. Part of the answers to these uncertainties lies in Kabul and we do not have a crystal ball to forecast the future of Afghanistan. But another part of the difficult issues surrounding this project will not be solved in Kabul,” he concluded.
---
Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn