BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 27. On April 2, 2023, several countries have announced production cuts within the OPEC deal. In this regard, Kazakhstan has voluntarily reduced oil production by 78,000 barrels per day starting from May until the end of 2023.
As John Roberts, Energy Security Specialist and nonresident senior fellow at Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, told Trend, the Kazakh cut in production may simply reflect the limitations in its ability to continue to export crude oil at volumes achieved previously.
"In this regard, the start, or, to be correct, resumption, of regular crude oil shipments via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Supsa lines is a welcome step from the perspective of the energy security of both Kazakhstan and its customers in the EU. However, because this "Middle Corridor” system relies on tanker transport across the Caspian, and there is only limited capacity for such transport, at present it does not offer a full alternative to the CPC system," he said.
According to the expert, Kazakhstan already faces considerable problems in exporting its oil because of issues concerning its main export system, the Russian-controlled Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) line, through which oil produced at the giant Tengiz oilfield is routinely carried to the Russian export terminal at Novorossiysk.
"This has already prompted Kazakhstan to rename its export blend in order to avert International sanctions on Russian oil exported from Novorossiysk while stoppages at the port, due to a combination of both political and natural events, have reduced flows through the CPC line," Roberts added.
Meanwhile, according to the latest forecast from OPEC, Kazakhstan’s liquids output in 2023 is expected to increase by 0.1 mb/d. The outlook for the country's liquids supply for the current year has been downgraded slightly by 7,000 b/d, compared to the previous assessment. Thus, for the whole year, Kazakhstan's oil production is forecast to stand at 1.9 mb/d.