BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 1. The forecast of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) for the level of annual inflation for 2024 is 7.5–9.5 percent under the base scenario with a decrease by the end of 2025 to 5.5–7.5 percent, a source at the NBK told Trend.
"The slowdown in inflation in the medium term will continue against the backdrop of moderately tight monetary conditions and, as a result, stabilization of inflation expectations. The gradual return of inflation in Kazakhstan’s trading partner countries to their target values and the general trend towards lower world food prices will also help reduce inflation in Kazakhstan," the source said.
As the source noted, when forecasting the inflation rate, many external and internal factors are taken into account, which may vary depending on the forecasting model and technology.
"Thus, despite differences in approaches, it is important to take into account the conditions and forecast factors of economic experts and institutions in order to form an opinion about the inflation forecast. Inflation expectations of international financial institutions at the end of 2024 in Kazakhstan are in the range of 7.5–9.5 percent, which is close to the NBK forecast," the source noted.
According to the source, currently, inflation in Kazakhstan continues to gradually decline. At the end of 2023, it amounted to 9.8 percent, that is, it reached a single-digit level. At the same time, certain risks regarding inflation remain.
"If inflation continues to slowdown in 2024, the National Bank will consider the feasibility of further reducing the base rate. At the same time, pauses in changing the base rate to accumulate data and monitor risks cannot be ruled out," the source added.