ASTANA, Kazakhstan, March 18. Kazakhstan's GDP growth at the end of 2024 amounted to 3.5-4.5 percent, Trend reports.
According to the report of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) on monetary policy for 2024-2026, in 2024, the main contribution to GDP growth will come from domestic demand. The growth in household spending will be supported by budget spending on the social sector, the restoration of positive dynamics in real wages against the backdrop of slowing inflation, and positive dynamics in the issuance of consumer loans.
At the same time, it is expected that export dynamics will be influenced by such factors as the postponement of the implementation of the Future Growth Project - Wellhead Pressure Management Project (FGP/WPMP) at Tengiz field to 2025 and moderate grain exports due to a poor harvest in 2023.
In addition, the NBK pointed out that in 2025, fiscal stimulus will weaken somewhat, but the more muted fiscal impulse will be offset by accelerated exports due to the launch of the FGP/WPMP project, which will significantly increase oil production at the Tengiz field. Exports will be supported by external demand, which will remain stable over the forecast horizon.
"As a result of the faster growth of exports over the dynamics of domestic demand and more moderate imports, GDP growth in 2025 will be 5.5-6.5 percent," the NBK said.
Moreover, as the NBK noted, in 2026, exports will show weak dynamics against the background of a decrease in oil production due to repair work at the main fields. In addition, as fiscal stimulus fades, domestic demand will approach its trend values. These factors will help bring economic growth closer to its long-term values. As a result, GDP growth in 2026 is expected to be 3.5-4.5 percent.
Furthermore, Kazakhstan's economic growth amounted to 5.1 percent in 2023. Last year, the volume of investments in fixed capital increased by 13.7 percent and amounted to $39.5 billion, while over the first nine months of 2023, $19.7 billion of foreign direct investment was attracted.