Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 14 / Trend V. Zhavoronkova/
The U.S. and NATO forces are unlikely to completely leave the transit centre in Manas airport in Kyrgyzstan in 2014, when the lease agreement expires, the U.S. expert on Central Asia Alexander Cooley said.
Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev has recently reminded the U.S. ambassador in Kyrgyzstan about the termination of the lease for using Manas in 2014 and that Kyrgyzstan is not going to prolong the lease agreement.
The Kyrgyz Parliament's opposition even unsuccessfully tries to gain closure of Manas before its lease term expires.
However, observers do not expect complete withdrawal of the U.S. forces from Manas airport in 2014.
"My sense is that the Kyrgyz government may renegotiate the term of Manas after 2014, either by demanding more rent or a precise withdrawal date, but I do not believe we will see an outright eviction that year," Cooley, professor of Political Science at Barnard College of Columbia University told Trend via e-mail.
He said when the lease agreement expires in 2014 much will depend on Kyrgyz domestic politics, the distribution of benefits that come from the base, as well as the broader state of US-Russian relations.
Cooley said the status of the American base has consistently been discussed and politicized by Kyrgyz politicians, ever since former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev assumed office in 2005 and then, in 2009, initiated a "bidding war between Washington and Moscow" over its presence.
"President Atambayev's comments about the base are a signal to Moscow that Kyrgyzstan intends to follow a more pro-Moscow foreign policy orientation," he added.
Expert stressed the base offers a number of economic benefits and lucrative contracts to Kyrgyz business interests, it employs over 700 Kyrgyz workers and provides $60 million in annual rental payments to the Kyrgyz government budget, not to mention the lucrative fuel contracts that are now being managed by a Russian-Kyrgyz joint venture.
"I think it would be difficult for the Kyrgyz government to willingly forgo these economic benefits," Cooley said.
He added the Americans do have other possible options and contingency plans, but Manas has become a convenient and efficient transit point, as nearly all US troops entering and leaving Afghanistan are staged through the Manas facility.
The Transit Centre at Manas was opened in late 2001 after the U.S launched its operation in Afghanistan. At present, it accommodates about 1,200 U.S soldiers. According to Pentagon statistics, the base handles up to 15,000 coalition servicemen and 500 tons of cargoes a month.