TASHKENT, Uzbekistan, October 31. After
considering macroeconomic forecasts and inflationary factors, the
Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) decided to leave the policy rate
unchanged at 13.5 percent per annum, the CBU told Trend.
The CBU decided to keep the policy rate unchanged due to
persistent inflationary pressures driven by strong consumer and
investment demand, as well as supply constraints in certain goods
and services. To ensure a steady decline in inflation and achieve
the medium-term target of 5 percent, the CBU has opted to keep
monetary conditions relatively tight.
In September, annual headline inflation stood at 10.5 percent,
unchanged over the last quarter, though core inflation increased to
7.1 percent year-on-year, largely driven by consumer demand,
adjustments in fuel prices, tariffs on services, and higher costs
for certain food items.
Declining prices for fruits and vegetables have contributed to a
moderation in overall inflation, and October’s weekly data has
shown stable consumer prices with monthly growth below the previous
year’s levels.
Survey data from September indicate a significant difference
between actual inflation and inflation expectations, with
households expecting 13.3 percent and businesses expecting 12.6
percent. Under relatively tight monetary conditions, the bank
projects inflationary pressures to ease slightly in the last
quarter of the year, with headline inflation expected to be around
9.5 percent by year-end.
In September, in order to reduce inflation to the projected
levels by the end of this year and achieve the 5 percent target in
the medium term, the Board of the Central Bank decided to keep the
policy rate unchanged at 13.5 percent.
