Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov. 24
By Umid Niayesh - Trend:
The last round of nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 has entered the last day with hopes on reaching an agreement before the deadline is almost disappeared.
Nov. 24 is set as the deadline to reach a comprehensive nuclear agreement between Iran and the world six powers (the US, UK, France, Russia and China plus Germany ) to put an end to the decade-old nuclear dispute.
Behrooz Bayat, a former consultant at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) believes that the Islamic Republic's case will almost never be back to the condition before the Geneva nuclear deal.
Last November, Iran and the P5+1 clinched an interim nuclear accord, which took effect on Jan. 20 and expired six months later. Under the deal dubbed the Geneva Joint Plan of Action, the six world powers undertook to provide Iran with some sanctions relief in exchange for Tehran agreeing to limit certain aspects of its nuclear activities.
Neither the western side, nor Iran want to return to the past, Bayat told Trend Nov. 24.
For Iran, which is suffering the tight sanctions, failure of the negotiations will be very dangerous, the expert said, adding the US president Barack Obama also wants to resolve the nuclear case as a positive point during his presidency.
Bayat underlined that there are also other parties that are interested to change their behavior towards Iran and seems are aware that implementing political projects in the Middle East without Iran is very difficult and even impossible. The two sides have political will to achieve a result, he said.
While commenting on the possible scenarios about the results of ongoing nuclear talks he said achieving a comprehensive agreement before deadline is the most unlikely but possible scenario.
It is also possible that the sides agree on a general framework in particular on political principles, and then extend the negotiation, he added.
Bayat said that another possible scenario is keeping the Geneva deal- maybe with some changes- and extending the negotiations based on the Geneva deal. The unlikely scenario is fail of the negotiations, he added.
The Iranian expert said that the western side wants to be sure of changes in Iran 's behavior.
It seems that there are some signals on the Iranian side for cooperation and the western party is aware of them, he added. For instance, there are signs that even some hardliners in Iran 's administration seriously support a nuclear agreement, Bayat said. He also added that the Islamic Republic will not benefit at all if the current conditions continue.
"The change of the current situation and removing the sanctions is vital for Iran," Bayat said.
He said that Iran's insist on its nuclear program which is not at all economically justified and has changed to a political "prestige" issue imposes serious losses to the country, not only in the short term but even in the long period considering the effects of the international sanctions.
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