As the U.S. presidential election nears, candidates are intensifying efforts to engage key ethnic communities in their bid for crucial voter support. One such group is the influential Armenian diaspora, traditionally concentrated in electoral battlegrounds like California and New Jersey. With over half a million Armenian-Americans, this community holds significant political power, amplified by active lobbying efforts from Armenian-American organizations focused on issues surrounding Armenia and the South Caucasus.
With less than a month until Election Day, the political atmosphere has reached a boiling point. The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump increasingly resembles a high-stakes chess game, where every move counts. Polls indicate that the gap between the two candidates has tightened to within the margin of error, both nationally and in key battleground states. However, the battle for control of Congress is equally critical, as it has the potential to reshape the U.S. political landscape. Even if Harris manages to defeat Trump, her ability to govern effectively could be hindered if Republicans seize control of the legislative branch.
Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump understand the importance of courting Armenian-American voters. This article examines how each candidate is playing the "Armenian card," their respective positions on Armenia and Azerbaijan, and how U.S. foreign policy might shift based on the outcome of the election.
The Armenian Diaspora: A Formidable Political Force
The Armenian diaspora in the U.S. is one of the most politically active and well-organized ethnic groups, wielding considerable influence over American policy. Organizations like the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) and the Armenian Assembly of America have been highly effective in lobbying for the recognition of the so-called "Armenian genocide" and advancing Armenia's broader foreign policy goals.
California, home to one of the largest Armenian-American populations, plays a pivotal role in this dynamic. With key congressional districts potentially tipping the balance in closely contested elections, the loyalty of Armenian-American voters has become a focal point for both Harris and Trump. Winning their favor could be critical to gaining an edge in these hotly contested regions.
Kamala Harris: Pro-Armenian Stance and Strengthening Diaspora Ties
Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, has long been an advocate for the Armenian diaspora. Her support for recognizing the 1915 events as "genocide" has endeared her to the community. As Vice President, Harris backed President Biden’s historic declaration acknowledging the so-called "genocide," a move that further solidified her standing among Armenian-American voters.
In addition to championing symbolic gestures, Harris has focused on expanding economic and military aid to Armenia, a significant point of interest for the Armenian diaspora. She has also been vocal about maintaining pressure on Azerbaijan, particularly concerning the conflict over Karabakh. Harris’s approach reflects the traditional stance of the Democratic Party, which has historically supported ethnic minority groups and their causes.
By emphasizing human rights and international law in her platform, Harris has tapped into the values held by liberal and progressive segments of the Armenian-American community, further consolidating their support.
Donald Trump: Pragmatism and Strategic Interests
Donald Trump, on the other hand, has taken a more pragmatic approach to the South Caucasus during his presidency. While the Republican stance on foreign policy has traditionally emphasized national interests, Trump’s administration worked to maintain a balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan. His focus has been on energy security and regional stability, particularly through strategic partnerships with Azerbaijan.
Trump’s administration rarely placed the Armenian agenda at the forefront, preferring instead to strengthen ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan. This approach aligns with Trump’s broader foreign policy philosophy—prioritizing U.S. economic and strategic interests over symbolic gestures. His reluctance to push for the recognition of the "Armenian genocide" set him apart from his Democratic counterparts, though it did not alienate the Armenian electorate entirely. Trump’s broader focus on security, economic development, and regional stability offers appeal to segments of the diaspora interested in a pragmatic, realist foreign policy.
How the Candidates are Courting Armenian-American Voters
Both Harris and Trump recognize the significance of winning over Armenian-American voters, but their approaches differ markedly. Harris has committed to continuing the recognition of the "genocide" and ramping up pressure on Azerbaijan and Turkey. Her platform also includes expanding economic and military assistance to Armenia, a proposal that resonates strongly with the Armenian-American electorate.
Trump, by contrast, presents a more balanced approach. He emphasizes strengthening ties with both Azerbaijan and Turkey, ensuring U.S. strategic interests in energy security and countering Russian and Iranian influence in the region. His campaign’s appeal to realism and pragmatism may resonate with Armenian-Americans who prioritize stability and security.
Impact on Azerbaijan: How U.S. Foreign Policy Could Shift
The 2024 U.S. presidential election will significantly influence the country’s foreign policy, particularly regarding Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus. If Kamala Harris wins, her pro-Armenian stance is likely to result in increased pressure on Azerbaijan, especially concerning the Karabakh conflict. Harris may advocate for sanctions or other punitive measures against Baku should new conflicts arise with Armenia, potentially straining U.S.-Azerbaijan relations.
In contrast, a Trump victory would likely signal a continuation of the more balanced approach his administration pursued during his first term. Trump is expected to maintain support for energy projects, including the Southern Gas Corridor, which positions Azerbaijan as a key player in Europe’s energy security. Azerbaijan could anticipate stronger bilateral cooperation under Trump, particularly in the areas of energy and regional stability.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election could reshape the country’s foreign policy, particularly in relation to Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus. Kamala Harris is expected to take a more pro-Armenian stance, which could heighten tensions with Azerbaijan, while Donald Trump’s pragmatic approach is likely to maintain a balance between U.S. interests and regional stability.
The Armenian diaspora plays a pivotal role in this political game, with their support potentially proving decisive for both candidates. The real question is how ethnic interests will shape future U.S. foreign policy and the balance of power in the South Caucasus.
Presidential Race: A Fine Line Between Victory and Defeat
Kamala Harris started her campaign with significant momentum, but she has struggled to gain a commanding lead. A poll conducted by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ places her chances of victory at 54%, but the trends are not currently in the Democrats' favor. According to a recent YouGov survey, voter support is evenly split, with both Harris and Trump receiving 47%. Earlier in September, Harris held a four-point lead over Trump, but this advantage has evaporated following the September 10 debates.
One of the main factors contributing to Trump’s resurgence has been his team’s strong debate performances. Republican vice-presidential candidate JD Vance outperformed his Democratic rival, Tim Walz, providing a crucial boost to the conservative campaign. Additionally, Trump has effectively used his aggressive rhetoric to criticize the federal government’s handling of Hurricane Helen, shifting public attention to the administration’s perceived shortcomings. As another major storm, Hurricane Milton, approaches with the potential to cause similar devastation, Trump has further sharpened his attacks on the Biden administration’s competence, directly impacting Harris's polling numbers.
According to leading polling aggregators like RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, the gap between Harris and Trump has narrowed to just 2–3 percentage points—well within the margin of error. This is a worrying trend for the Democratic campaign, given that U.S. presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College, not the popular vote. As seen in the 2016 election, it is possible to win the popular vote but lose due to the distribution of electoral votes in swing states. Trump’s chances, especially in pivotal states like Pennsylvania, remain high, keeping the race far from a guaranteed victory for Harris.
Congress: The Battleground for Power
Even if Kamala Harris wins the presidency, she will face an uphill battle governing if Congress falls under Republican control. The race for both chambers of Congress has become just as fiercely contested as the presidential race itself. Current forecasts predict that Republicans have a 71% chance of gaining control of the Senate and a 54% chance of securing a majority in the House of Representatives.
In the Senate, Republicans are in a favorable position. Of the 33 seats up for election, Republicans need to flip only two Democratic-held seats to regain control. Special attention is focused on three states currently represented by Democrats but where Trump won during the 2016 and 2020 elections. Moreover, one Senate seat seems almost guaranteed to go Republican: Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia is retiring, and Republican Governor Jim Justice is expected to easily win the race for his seat.
The House of Representatives also presents a grim picture for Democrats. Although their chances of retaining control are slightly better than in the Senate, projections from The Hill suggest that Republicans are on track to win 219 seats compared to 216 for Democrats. Since 218 seats are needed to control the House, even a single race could swing the balance of power.
The Consequences of Republican Control in Congress
If Republicans gain control of both chambers of Congress, a Harris-led administration would face immense obstacles in passing legislation or enacting its agenda. Republicans would be in a strong position to block or delay judicial appointments, budgetary measures, and other significant initiatives. With a conservative Congress, Harris's ability to push through reforms could be severely hampered, resulting in a potentially deadlocked government.
If Trump wins the presidency and Republicans control Congress, the Republican Party would effectively dominate all three branches of government. This scenario would give Trump near-unchecked power to implement his policy agenda, appoint conservative judges, and shape the future of U.S. governance with little opposition. It would be a transformative shift in American politics, allowing Republicans to steer the country in a more conservative direction for years to come.
The Impact on the Future Presidency
If Republicans manage to seize control of both chambers of Congress, a Harris-led Democratic administration would face severe limitations, becoming nearly paralyzed in its ability to govern. Conservatives could easily block key presidential initiatives, from judicial nominations to budget proposals, effectively stalling any progress on legislative reforms. In such a scenario, it would become nearly impossible for Democrats to enact their policy agenda, resulting in a legislative deadlock.
The stakes become even higher if Republicans also win the presidency. In this case, they would control not only Congress but also the executive and judicial branches, including the Supreme Court. With this trifecta, Republicans would be empowered to implement their policies with minimal resistance, granting them unprecedented influence to reshape the country’s direction for years to come. Such a scenario would strip away many of the checks and balances that normally temper policy shifts, giving conservatives carte blanche to pursue their legislative goals without substantial opposition.
Uncertainty and Tension
This election cycle is one of the most intense in modern U.S. history, marked by heightened tension and political stakes. Democrats are fighting fiercely to hold onto Congress, pouring millions of dollars into their campaigns. In the race for the Senate alone, Democrats have outspent Republicans by over $150 million. The Associated Press has dubbed this election season "a period of maximum uncertainty," as every seat could tip the balance of power in Congress.
Amid this fierce political battle, the country’s future remains highly uncertain. No matter which party prevails, the next few years will likely be characterized by a continuous struggle for control over the government. This battle will inevitably give rise to new crises, conflicts, and political confrontations, further polarizing the nation.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election will also significantly influence the country’s foreign policy, particularly regarding Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus. Kamala Harris, with her strong ties to the Armenian diaspora, has indicated she would take a tougher stance on issues related to Azerbaijan and Armenia, aligning herself more closely with Armenian interests. In contrast, Donald Trump, known for his pragmatic foreign policy approach, has shown a willingness to cooperate with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, potentially offering a more balanced path that could foster regional stability.
The outcome of this election will shape U.S.-Azerbaijan relations in the years to come and define the roles key players take in the South Caucasus. The Armenian diaspora’s influence in U.S. politics remains crucial, and both Harris and Trump recognize the value of its support. How these ethnic interests sway U.S. foreign policy, and the resulting balance of power in the region, remains an open question as election day approaches.