Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec. 4
By Seymur Aliyev - Trend:
Russia's refusal to complete the South Stream gas pipeline is one of the most discussed topics in oil circles today. Despite the fact that much has been written on this subject, the role of Turkey in this process has not yet been sufficiently covered.
Turkey, which is one of the most influential players in the region, is a reliable, consistent strategic US ally in the fight against Bashar al-Assad. In addition, this country iacts as a natural buffer between the "Islamic State", Iran, and Europe.
All this allows Ankara to act without regard for its partners in some cases. This explains the continuing "confrontation" between Turkey and Israel, and Ankara acted again so, allowing Russia to lay a gas pipeline through its territory.
However, despite the determination of Turkey and its desire to become a supplier, not a transit country of energy, there are more questions than answers in this project.
The most important question is who will build this pipeline.
Today, Turkey participates in projects of delivery of Azerbaijani gas to Europe through its state-owned companies. These projects include the second stage of the Shah Deniz field development, the expansion of the South Caucasus gas pipeline, and finally, the TANAP gas pipeline.
Financing of the share of Turkey in these projects requires multi-billion dollar investments. It is not yet clear by what means Ankara plans to invest in the Russian project, which will also require billion dollar investments. If Russia completely undertakes the construction of the pipeline, then the pipe would belong to Russia as well. Turkey will probably never allow such a step.
Questions concerning volumes, which Turkey intends to purchase in Russia, also arise.
In 2012, the country consumed 41.4 billion cubic meters of gas. In 2013, this figure fell to 38 billion cubic meters. Apparently, this year the figure is expected to remain the same.
The question is: what will Turkey do with 14 billion cubic meters of gas, which it wants to get from Russia, especially, given the fact that the consumption in Turkey has decreased and in 2018 it will begin to receive an additional six billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas.
If this volume of gas is added to the Russian gas, the total amount that the country will receive in the years to come (20 billion cubic meters) will amount to nearly half of today's consumption in Turkey.
In this case, it is simply unrealistic to expect a 50-percent increase in consumption in this country in the next few years.
The important point is the delivery of the Russian gas to Europe's borders.
The EU, rejecting the South Stream, will not buy the gas, if it is sold by Russia.
So, Turkey can become its supplier. But, Ankara, which has always been treated by Europe with caution, today has no experience in such projects.
Azerbaijan on the other hand has such experience. Today, Baku is known and trusted in Europe, and as the initiator of alternative supplies, has already held talks with European countries.
Several routes, including the Nabucco pipeline, were considered before selecting the Trans Adriatic Pipeline as the main route for supplies of Azerbaijani gas.
Azerbaijan carried out an evaluation of all these projects, and knows their partners, the conditions and possibilities of implementation, strengths and weaknesses.
The experience of Baku can be successfully used to deliver gas to Europe.
Edited by CN
Seymur Aliyev, the head of the Trend Agency Russian news service