Sweden, Stockholm, Feb. 19 / Trend U. Sadikhova /
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood organization has broad support of the population. But it is not enough for its leaders to be able to take power, Western analysts said.
"It is true that Muslim Brotherhood is a very organized movement in Egypt. The movement may be supported by 20 percent of the population, but this is not enough to take over power in Egypt, Noha Mellor, doctor at the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Kingston University London, said.
The Muslim Brotherhood organization was banned in Egypt for ten years. It announced about establishing a new political party, rejecting the information about possible participation in presidential elections, to be held in the country in the coming months.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigned after a 30-year reign and transferred power to the army on February 11. He was forced to take this action due to mass protests that covered the country from January 25. The main causes of popular unrest were social injustice, corruption and poverty in Egypt. Roughly 365 people died.
Western countries and Israel feared that Islamic groups can take power in one of the largest Arab countries amid the political chaos. But experts skeptically consider Muslim Brotherhood organization's chances to establish control over the power in Egypt.
Ingmar Karlsson, Senior Researcher of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, University of Lund, does not observe the ways that would help the Muslim Brotherhood organization to come to power.
This will cause new demonstrations because the manifestation of Egyptian people showed that this was a very strong manifestation of the will and strive for democracy, Ingmar Karlsson, former diplomat of the Swedish Foreign Ministry in some Middle Eastern countries, told Trend.
I think that they are waiting for opportunity to show their strength in the upcoming elections, which must be democratic, but it is a question of the future.
"The situation is very unclear we don't know what other parties perform, what kind of basis they have how strong are their relations, Wasat party," Karlsson said.
U.S professor on Middle East Joshua Landis thinks that the previous rating of the party in the elections may not be repeated in the future.
"Of course, the Muslim Brotherhood organization will play a large role in any parliament which holds free elections. They have won about 30 percent of the vote in the past, but we will have to see how well they do in the future. It is hard to know without free elections," Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies and associate professor at the University of Oklahoma, told Trend.
I don't think the Muslim Brotherhood can take over Egypt because they will meet with resistance of Egyptian army, which has maintained its prestige among the population, he said.
My hunch is that many Egyptians do not want rule by the Muslim Brotherhood organization. The military is quite hostile to the Muslim Brotherhood organization, which means that they cannot take power by force, Landis said.
The Muslim Brotherhood organization supports former head of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei in the presidential elections. He is supported by several Western countries. ElBaradei mainly stands for fundamental political and economic reforms. He is often characterized as a secular politician.
British analyst Mellor excludes the Islamic character of the Egyptian revolution. It is often called as a "revolution of social network".
The 25-Jan revolution was led by the so-called Facebook generation, who did not call for Islam, but for better governance and more freedoms, Mellor told Trend via e-mail.
It is also worth remembering that the official response of the Muslim Brotherhood to the revolution was not particularly supportive, when one of the senior members commented negatively on the Tahrir Square demonstrators, although youth members of the movement were in the square protesting.
The youth wing of the movement, as well as all youths in Egypt, will always remember that the movement never really confronted Mubarak or ever mobilized such mass protests, Mellor said.
In summary, the youths who revolted in the Tahrir Square are unlikely to accept yet another authoritarian regime and you can see this now on Facebook, and TV debates where youth debate political reforms, press freedom and the end of corruption - rather than the Koran!
Meanwhile, Sheik Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who is accused of close ties with the Muslim Brotherhood organization, appealed to Arab leaders to launch a dialogue with the civilian population on Friday at Tahrir Square in Cairo Egyptian theologian. He called for the Egyptian led by Ahmed Shafik to resign.
Many demonstrators supported the scientist, demanding to prosecute corrupt officials and former ministers, to abolish the state of emergency and to release all demonstrators detained by the police.