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The collapse of the liberal order: a world on the brink of global change

Politics Materials 2 October 2024 21:05 (UTC +04:00)
The collapse of the liberal order: a world on the brink of global change

For the past eight decades, the liberal world order has dominated international relations. Today, it stands at a critical crossroads. The institutional framework that once upheld global stability is now faltering under the weight of new challenges. Built on principles that favored Western interests, this order is increasingly incapable of addressing global problems equitably.

The leading powers are now voicing the need for a new system—one that reflects a shifting balance of power and acknowledges emerging global players.

On September 22, 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron, despite his limited global influence, expressed his growing concern about the status quo, calling for systemic reform: “The unjust world order must be restructured to ensure peaceful coexistence.” Macron emphasized the need for a comprehensive overhaul of key international institutions like the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, institutions that are increasingly seen as out of step with the realities of today’s world.

China and Russia have long advocated for a more dramatic shift. Both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have been vocal in their support for a multipolar world order, where power is more evenly distributed. Speaking in July 2024, Putin declared, “The current system is prone to hegemony and unilateral decisions. We need to build a new balance of power that respects the interests of all nations.”

An Outdated Global System: Reform or Rebirth?

The unipolar order that emerged after the Cold War, with the United States as its linchpin, once appeared unassailable. But over the past two decades, geopolitical shifts have exposed its vulnerabilities. The meteoric rise of China, the reassertion of Russia on the global stage, and the emergence of regional powerhouses have weakened the foundation of a system built to maintain Western dominance. Political analyst Ian Bremmer, in an interview with Time, succinctly noted, “The liberal world order was effective in its time, but it no longer meets the needs of the majority of countries today.”

The United Nations, a cornerstone of the post-war global order, offers a vivid illustration of this obsolescence. Africa, Latin America, and the Islamic world remain underrepresented in the Security Council, undermining its legitimacy and its ability to effectively address global crises. The long-overdue reform of the Security Council has become a global imperative, yet political inertia continues to stifle progress. The voices calling for change are growing louder, but the mechanisms to effect meaningful reform remain elusive.

The Dual Threat of Poverty and Water Scarcity

Poverty remains a critical humanitarian issue that the current world order has failed to adequately address. The stark disparity in wealth distribution continues to fuel social unrest and political instability. According to 2022 data, the wealthiest 1% of the world’s population controls 38% of global capital, while the bottom half owns just 2%. This extreme imbalance not only exacerbates social tensions but also feeds into migration crises and regional conflicts, destabilizing entire regions.

The looming crisis of water scarcity presents an equally grave challenge. Climate change is accelerating the depletion of vital water resources, threatening millions across the globe. According to the United Nations, by 2030, as many as 700 million people could become displaced due to a lack of access to clean water. This crisis is especially acute in impoverished regions, where water shortages compound existing inequalities and drive mass migrations, creating flashpoints for conflict in both the Global North and South.

A System in Need of a Paradigm Shift

At the heart of today’s global debate is a crucial question: Can the current world order be salvaged through reforms, or is a complete overhaul necessary? Increasingly, experts are concluding that the latter may be the only viable path forward. Harvard professor Joseph Nye warns, “The world can no longer afford to be held hostage by institutions that are no longer fit for purpose.”

These discussions are particularly relevant for nations like Turkey, which straddles the line between East and West and is seeking to redefine its geopolitical role. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has acknowledged this reality, stating, “Turkey must be ready for global transformation while maintaining internal stability and strength.” For Turkey and other nations in similar positions, the choice is clear: either adapt to the changing global landscape or risk falling behind as new power structures take shape.

Reform or Ruin?

The post-war liberal order, which provided decades of relative stability, is now crumbling under the weight of unaddressed global challenges. The growing consensus is that simply tweaking existing institutions will not be enough to stave off further crises. A new global order—one that reflects the interests and aspirations of a broader range of nations—is urgently needed.

As Henry Kissinger, one of the foremost architects of the modern geopolitical landscape, once said, “The real challenge in politics is to manage inevitable change.” Indeed, without substantial reform or the creation of a new system altogether, the liberal order risks becoming a relic of the past—its failure potentially sowing the seeds of future conflict and instability.

This is a moment of reckoning. The world stands at a critical juncture, and the decisions made in the coming years will shape the future of global governance for generations to come.

... In recent decades, the global order, which was built on the principles of unipolarity after the end of the Cold War, has faced serious challenges that call into question its effectiveness and its ability to adequately respond to new geopolitical and economic risks. The core issue lies in the fact that the unipolar system, led by the United States, has proven incapable of handling a series of global crises, ranging from financial shocks to regional conflicts and heightened geopolitical competition. This article explores why the current world order has become ineffective and why a multipolar world is necessary for stable and equitable development.

The Collapse of the Unipolar World: Key Challenges

One of the central challenges to the unipolar world emerged with the 2008 financial crisis, which vividly demonstrated the weaknesses of existing economic institutions. The systems designed to regulate global financial flows and maintain stability proved ineffective. As a result, millions of people worldwide faced economic hardships, and the countries wielding significant influence over international finance were unable to offer long-term solutions.

As Nobel laureate in economics Professor Joseph Stiglitz points out, "The global financial system, under the control of Western institutions, is no longer capable of ensuring stable growth and sustainability." His view is supported by statistics: according to the IMF, global GDP contracted by 0.1% in 2009, while economic imbalances only deepened, particularly in developing countries.

Geopolitical Instability: The Escalation of Regional Conflicts

Beyond economic issues, the current world order has failed to prevent the rise of regional conflicts and growing geopolitical tensions. Examples include wars in the Middle East, the crisis in Ukraine, and numerous conflicts in Africa and Asia. Political experts such as Henry Kissinger have warned that without proper attention to regional issues from global powers, these conflicts not only persist but also pose significant threats to global stability.

"The unipolar world has proven unable to contain growing geopolitical risks, instead fostering the rise of nationalism and revanchism," notes political scientist John Mearsheimer, pointing to the inefficacy of Western diplomatic mechanisms, which falter in the face of increasing numbers of regional actors seeking independent policies.

Economic Imbalances and New Centers of Power

A major problem with the current world order is the economic imbalance, further exacerbated by the rise of new economic giants such as China and India. The system, in which power was concentrated in the hands of the G7 nations, no longer reflects reality, as the share of BRICS countries in the global economy grows annually. According to the World Bank, in 2023, BRICS nations produced about 32% of global GDP, surpassing the G7.

A multipolar world, which envisions a more equitable distribution of economic resources and political power, is becoming a necessity. Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, speaking at the BRICS summit, remarked, "We see the need for a new international order, one that is more inclusive and fair for developing countries. The world can no longer be unipolar, and economic power must be redistributed."

The Rise of the Global South

One of the most significant signs of the transition to a multipolar world is the growing influence of the Global South. In recent years, these nations, previously on the periphery of the global economy, have gradually increased their influence in global processes. Africa, Latin America, and Asia are becoming new centers of growth, where economic and demographic factors position them as key players in the future system of international relations.

As renowned political scientist and economist Samuel Huntington observes, "The world is becoming increasingly multipolar, and this is inevitable. The dominance of a single superpower is impossible in the context of such dynamic economic and political development." According to the UN, by 2030, more than 60% of the world's population will live in Asia and Africa, making these regions strategically vital for global stability.

New Global Security Challenges

Modern security challenges such as cyber threats, climate change, and terrorism require multilateral solutions and the participation of many players. A unipolar system, focused on the interests of individual states, cannot effectively respond to these threats. For example, addressing climate change requires collective action from all nations, but the unipolar world has failed to secure consensus and implement global environmental initiatives like the Paris Agreement.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has repeatedly emphasized the importance of multilateralism: "Today's challenges require collective action. No one can tackle threats such as climate change, cyberattacks, or migration crises alone." However, the unipolar system hinders these actions by concentrating on the national interests of major powers rather than global problems.

The Need for a Multipolar World

The transition to a multipolar world is inevitable. This is not merely a response to current economic and political realities, but the only way to effectively address global challenges. As Russian political scientist Sergey Karaganov highlights, "The unipolar system is outdated. The world has long since ceased to be unipolar, and today we are witnessing new centers of power emerging on the international stage, demanding a revision of global rules."

A multipolar world implies a balance of interests between different countries and regions, allowing compromises and solutions that consider the needs of all parties. BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Eurasian Economic Union, and other regional associations demonstrate the viability of alternative models of cooperation aimed at multilateral solutions.

Conclusion

The current global order, built on the principles of unipolarity, is failing to address the pressing challenges of today. Economic crises, regional conflicts, and the rise of new players on the international stage highlight its inefficacy. The shift to a multipolar world is not only necessary but inevitable, as only such a system can offer fair distribution of power, resources, and opportunities while ensuring stable development for all participants in the global system.

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