Renaissance Capital unveils forecast for Kazakhstan's, Russia's PMI

Business Materials 7 October 2021 11:41 (UTC +04:00)
Renaissance Capital unveils forecast for Kazakhstan's, Russia's PMI

BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 7

By Nargiz Sadikhova - Trend:

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in September improved in both Russia and Kazakhstan, Renaissance Capital analytical agency told Trend.

The agency said that in Russia, PMI in manufacturing increased to 49.8 (from 46.5 in August) – the highest level since May – but remained below neutral. Russia services PMI increased to 50.5 (from 49.3 in August), marginally above the market’s expectations.

In Kazakhstan, PMI in manufacturing was back to above-neutral 50.3 in September 2021 (after 49.2 in August), as we expected, amid improving epidemiological situation and recovering activity in the Tengiz oilfield after maintenance work.

"Kazakhstan services PMI printed at solid 51.2 after 51.4 in August. In both Russia and Kazakhstan, companies indicated an increase in new orders and a strengthening demand; manufacturing companies reported moderating input prices’ pressure, while businesses in services saw cost inflation accelerating still," said the report.

“We expect the recovery to flatten gradually in coming months in Russia, with 2021 GDP printing at 4.5 percent year-on-year (with more upside than downside risk, see more here), followed by 2.7 percent year-on-year growth in 2022E (above the market’s consensus of 4 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively),” the agency said.

In Kazakhstan, in contrast, the agency said it sees more scope for a catch-up recovery to spill into 2022 amid oil production recovery, with the GDP growth at 4 percent and 5.6 percent year-on-year in 2021 and 2022, respectively.


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