Fitch improves 2020 global GDP forecast
BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept. 8
By Fidan Babayeva – Trend:
Fitch international rating agency has improved the forecast on global GDP for 2020, Trend reports referring to Fitch.
Fitch Ratings in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) expects global GDP to fall by 4.4 percent in 2020, a modest upward revision from the 4.6 percent decline expected in the June GEO.
“The recovery in economic activity after the unprecedented severe coronavirus-related recession in March and April has been swifter than anticipated, but we expect the pace of expansion to moderate soon,” Fitch said.
"China has already regained its pre-virus level of GDP and retail sales in the US, France, and the UK now exceed February levels, but we doubt this will become the much-lauded 'V'-shaped recovery. Unemployment shocks lie ahead in Europe, firms are cutting investments, and social distancing continues to directly constrain private-sector spending", said Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, Fitch Ratings.
“We now expect the US economy to contract by 4.6 percent this year compared to a fall of 5.6 percent in the June GEO,” Fitch experts said. “Our 2020 China growth forecast is +2.7 percent (this was revised in late-July at the time of our most recent China sovereign rating review) compared to +1.2 percent in the June GEO.”
Following Fitch Ratings’ latest forecasts, Azerbaijan’s total public debt by the end of 2020 will increase by only four percentage points up to 23 percent of GDP. The debt growth by four percentage points is a relatively low indicator. Other sovereign countries risk increasing it in a more solid amount.
The 2020 recession forecast in the revised budget decreased from 2.4 percent to five percent, which is close to Fitch's 4.2 percent forecast. This reflects the measures to contain the coronavirus and Azerbaijan's participation in cutting oil supply within OPEC +, the report said.
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