For years, Turkmenistan has played its own quiet game — a diplomatic tightrope walk between major powers, skillfully dodging pressure from heavyweights like Russia, China, and Türkiye. Ashgabat turned silence into a political art form, wrapping itself in an air of mystery and unpredictability. But now, that stoic desert wanderer seems to be eyeing a new path — one that could shake up the entire geopolitical chessboard of Central Asia.
The winds of change have started to drift across Ashgabat, carrying with them the unmistakable scent of Western opportunity — investments, economic growth, and a shot at modernization. Turkmenistan, long known for keeping the world at arm’s length, is increasingly turning its gaze toward Washington. Like a caravan master sizing up a new trade route — one brimming with promise but fraught with risk — Ashgabat seems to be inching toward fresh partnerships.
Meetings, delegations, and joint project discussions — all signs suggest Turkmenistan isn’t content to remain a geopolitical shadow anymore. This isn’t just a minor diplomatic flirtation; it’s a potential game-changer for the entire region. If Ashgabat truly commits to strengthening ties with Washington, the balance of power in Central Asia could tilt in ways that make Moscow sweat.
Ashgabat’s newfound curiosity about America is like a beam of sunlight breaking through the dusty haze of Eastern diplomacy. That light could illuminate new horizons for Turkmenistan, but it also risks sparking resentment from those who’ve long counted on Ashgabat as a steady, silent partner.
Turkmenistan now finds itself at a crossroads — where neutrality is no longer a guaranteed safety net but a delicate balancing act between global giants. Which road this desert caravan chooses could reshape not only Turkmenistan’s fate but the entire geopolitical landscape of Central Asia.
Turkmenistan and the U.S.: A New Dynamic in the Making
With the energy chessboard of Eurasia in flux, Turkmenistan is hustling to diversify its gas exports. The recent visit by U.S. Senator Steve Daines to Ashgabat on November 25 signaled a major step in that direction. During talks with Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, they hashed out strategies for broadening Turkmenistan’s gas export routes. Given Ashgabat’s long-standing ambitions to supply natural gas to Europe, this meeting sent a clear message: Turkmenistan is eyeing a path away from its one-sided economic dependence on China.
But energy wasn’t the only thing on the table. Daines’ talks with Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov touched on everything from political and diplomatic cooperation to trade, culture, and humanitarian issues — a sign that Washington isn’t just angling for Turkmen gas. The U.S. wants to play the long game.
The upcoming Turkmen-American Business Council meeting, slated for later this month, is yet another sign that ties are heating up. Notably, Turkmenistan sees closer economic cooperation with Washington as a key tool for accelerating its bid to join the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Just days before Daines’ visit, Turkmenistan’s Ministry of Finance and Economy held a USAID-backed workshop focused on WTO accession. The presence of U.S. Ambassador to Turkmenistan Elizabeth Rood underscored just how much weight Washington is putting behind this new push for engagement.
Turkmenistan as a Regional Power Player
The U.S. sees Turkmenistan as more than just a gas station — it’s a potential regional kingmaker. Back in February, reps from major American heavyweights like John Deere, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, and General Electric huddled with Turkmen delegates in D.C. to explore new business opportunities. Fast forward to November 6, and Turkmenistan’s Foreign Economic Bank chairman, Rahimberdy Jepbarov, was in Washington to hammer out economic and environmental cooperation with U.S. officials.
Adding fuel to the fire, just one day after that visit, Turkmenistan’s Foreign Ministry announced that Washington had praised Ashgabat’s progress on climate commitments — a clear sign that the U.S. is using environmental diplomacy as part of its strategy to win Turkmenistan over.
Washington’s Changing Tune
It's worth noting that U.S.-Turkmenistan ties haven’t always been all sunshine and rainbows. Back in 2018, the U.S. State Department tore into Ashgabat for alleged torture, arbitrary detentions, corruption, and lack of free elections. In May 2023, the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom slammed Turkmenistan as a “highly authoritarian regime with a dismal record on human rights and press freedom.”
But now, with Europe racing to break free from its reliance on Russian gas, Washington is shifting gears. Turkmenistan’s ambitions to sell gas to Europe present an economic win for the U.S. — and a golden opportunity to loosen Moscow’s grip on Central Asia’s energy game.
The Battle for Turkmen Gas: Russia vs. Türkiye
Despite Ashgabat’s growing flirtation with the West, Moscow isn’t about to let Turkmenistan slip from its grasp. Russia still views Turkmenistan as part of its energy turf and is pushing hard to expand its TurkStream pipeline, aiming to turn Türkiye into a major gas hub feeding the European market. That plan goes head-to-head with Turkmenistan’s own ambitions to ship gas westward.
Meanwhile, Türkiye is playing its own game. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made it clear that gas supplies from Turkmenistan to Türkiye and Europe are “just a matter of time.” Earlier in 2023, Turkmenistan’s top official, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, highlighted solid opportunities for Turkmen gas and electricity exports to Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye.
For Ankara, Turkmenistan is a vital partner in its grand vision of diversifying energy routes to Europe. The European Union is also making moves — a December 4 meeting of the Turkmenistan-EU Joint Committee in Brussels showed just how serious Europe is about locking in Central Asian energy alternatives.
In the race for Turkmen gas, Ashgabat is holding some powerful cards — and how it plays them could redefine the region’s energy map for years to come.
Turkmenistan Caught Between East and West: Balancing Act in the Energy Game
Turkmenistan’s recent pivot toward Western energy partnerships doesn’t spell an outright departure from its long-standing multi-vector foreign policy or its traditional neutrality. However, it's clear that Ashgabat is actively seeking to break free from its excessive economic dependence on China and is scouting new horizons for trade and investment. In doing so, Turkmenistan must walk a fine line, juggling the interests of Moscow, Ankara, and Brussels — all while steering clear of provoking confrontation with any of the major players.
Washington, meanwhile, is playing its cards skillfully, leveraging economic incentives to expand its foothold in Central Asia. By offering Turkmenistan support in investment, energy partnerships, and infrastructure development, the U.S. is positioning itself as a key partner in Ashgabat’s economic diversification drive.
In this shifting geopolitical landscape, Turkmenistan appears increasingly committed to a flexible foreign policy — one that strengthens ties with Western partners without jeopardizing its strategic balance with Russia and China. Ashgabat’s ambitions to raise its global profile are becoming more pronounced, and its strategic decisions may prove pivotal in shaping the evolving energy landscape of Eurasia.
Turkmenistan: A Rising Player in the Energy Game
For decades, Turkmenistan maintained its status as a neutral observer in regional geopolitics. Yet today, the country finds itself at the heart of a growing energy tug-of-war tied to Europe’s quest for energy security and the escalating rivalry over gas exports to the West. Turkmenistan’s push to expand its gas exports reflects more than just economic ambitions — it underscores the broader geopolitical chess game playing out in the region, where Moscow, Ankara, Washington, and Brussels are all vying for influence.
The Southern Gas Corridor and Turkmenistan’s Untapped Potential
The Southern Gas Corridor, a project championed by the European Commission in 2008, initially envisioned Turkmenistan as a key supplier of gas to the European market. The plan aimed to funnel roughly 30 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas annually through the proposed Trans-Caspian Pipeline — a route that would connect Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye before reaching the EU.
Beyond its economic appeal, the project held strategic value for Brussels, offering a viable path to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. Yet Moscow’s political muscle quickly stalled progress. Leveraging its regional influence, Russia actively obstructed the pipeline’s development while pushing an alternative: expanding the TurkStream pipeline. Moscow’s vision of a major gas hub at the Türkiye-EU border — tightly controlled by Russian energy giants — effectively froze the prospects of Turkmen gas reaching Europe via the Caspian route.
Despite these hurdles, Ankara has doubled down on its efforts to integrate Turkmenistan into its energy network. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly stated that Turkmenistan’s gas supplies to Türkiye and Europe are “only a matter of time.” For Erdoğan, Turkmenistan's gas isn't just an economic boon — it's a strategic move to bolster Türkiye's energy independence, especially as Ankara’s ties with Moscow grow increasingly strained.
Turkmenistan’s leadership echoes this sentiment. In March 2023, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, chairman of Turkmenistan’s upper parliamentary chamber, underscored his country’s “strong potential to export natural gas and electricity to Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye.” This shift signals Turkmenistan’s intent to broaden its energy footprint beyond traditional markets — a crucial step as Ashgabat finds itself increasingly boxed in by Beijing’s unfavorable trade terms.
Gas Diplomacy: Turkmenistan, Türkiye, and the Future of Energy Exports
Energy talks between Ankara and Ashgabat have accelerated in recent months, with both sides exploring options to transport Turkmen gas either via the Caspian Sea or through Iran and Iraq. While the region’s complex political climate complicates these efforts, Türkiye views Turkmenistan as a strategic partner capable of advancing major infrastructure projects in the energy sector.
For Turkmenistan, this diplomatic maneuvering isn’t just about profits — it’s a calculated move to reclaim influence in Eurasia’s energy market. As Ashgabat edges closer to new trade routes and partnerships, its strategic choices could ultimately redefine the balance of power in the region’s volatile energy landscape.
EU Energy Diplomacy: Turkmenistan Caught in the Crossfire
Turkmenistan’s push to break into the European energy market isn’t just a smart move — it’s a no-brainer in the wake of Europe’s gas crunch. With Russia dialing down its energy exports, the EU is scrambling for fresh suppliers, and Ashgabat’s massive natural gas reserves make it an attractive partner. For Brussels, Turkmenistan could be a game-changer in the bloc’s strategy to diversify its energy imports.
On December 4, energy talks took center stage at the Turkmenistan-EU Joint Committee meeting in Brussels. European policymakers are eyeing Turkmenistan as a key supplier of natural gas, yet the much-hyped Trans-Caspian Pipeline project remains stuck in limbo. Political roadblocks, particularly Moscow’s behind-the-scenes maneuvering, continue to cast doubt on whether the project will ever get off the ground.
Meanwhile, Brussels is stepping up its political engagement with Ashgabat. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) — where Washington holds considerable sway — is fast becoming a Western leverage point in Turkmenistan. Eager to solidify Western influence in Central Asia, Washington has been actively encouraging Ashgabat’s alignment with OSCE principles — a move that some Russian analysts are spinning as Turkmenistan slowly shifting into the West’s orbit.
Turkmenistan’s High-Stakes Balancing Act
For years, Turkmenistan played the role of the quiet observer — the old sage perched at the crossroads of global power struggles. Russia, China, Türkiye — each viewed Ashgabat as a potential ally, lured by the country’s vast energy wealth. Yet Turkmenistan refused to be dragged into anyone’s camp, carefully guarding its reputation as a neutral player.
But lately, the winds are changing. Ashgabat’s once-silent diplomatic game is starting to hum with activity. Just beyond its tightly controlled borders, Washington is making noise — and it’s not just knocking at Turkmenistan’s door; it’s showing up with a briefcase full of investment deals and infrastructure plans. The message is clear: The U.S. sees Turkmenistan as more than just a gas station — it’s a strategic ally in the making.
With Europe on the hunt for alternative energy sources, Turkmenistan now finds itself smack in the middle of a high-stakes geopolitical chess match. For Moscow, this isn’t just an annoying development — it’s a direct challenge to its energy dominance in the region. While Ashgabat keeps waving its neutrality flag, the pressure to pick a side is mounting — and fast.
A Ship in Stormy Waters
Today, Turkmenistan resembles a ship carefully navigating the stormy seas of global politics. On one side stands Moscow, a long-time partner; on the other, Washington’s relentless push for closer ties. The intensifying scramble for Central Asian energy resources has turned Ashgabat into a geopolitical hotspot — a vital piece on the energy chessboard.
For now, Turkmenistan is still walking the tightrope of diplomacy, clinging to its neutrality. But one thing’s certain: Every move Ashgabat makes echoes louder and louder in the halls of global power. The question is — how long can Turkmenistan keep playing both sides without getting caught in the crossfire?