Azerbaijan, Baku, Apr. 16 / Trend E.Tariverdiyeva /
Trend interviewed Director of the Kiev Center for Political and Conflict Studies Mikhail Pogrebinsky - especially for the Yeni Azerbaycan newspaper.
Trend: Recently, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych has liquidated the Interdepartmental Commission for Questions of Preparing Ukraine for Joining NATO. How do you evaluate this decision" Is it possible now to predict the West-Kiev relations?
Pogrebinsky: The parliament has not accepted any cat or the Ukrainian government has not adopted any regulations on refusal from entering NATO. This is the position of Yanukovych and his party, which mans that a question of membership in NATO is now irrelevant for Ukraine, but in principle it is possible, by a vote of a majority in a referendum. There is simply no such chance now. All accept this statement that the new government is focused on compliance with neutral status, a certain balance between the West and Russia, which, incidentally, confirmed by authorities' statements.
They say that Ukraine is interested in creating a large security system, which will include Europe and Russia. European partners and the U.S. is not disappointed in Yanukovych's position on NATO, as the issue of NATO membership is not on the agenda of the western states, which are now much more interested in establishing a constructive relations with Russia, than in Ukraine's accession to the alliance. That was the idea of Bush and some Eastern European countries. In general, EU sees no need for Ukraine's involvement in NATO. As we now observe 'reset' in the U.S. - Russia relations and this even more left no chance to resume Ukraine's path to NATO. Presently, Ukraine will simply fulfill the obligations as a partner of the alliance, cooperating with NATO.
Q: Will Yanukovych manage to keep a balanced vector of Ukraine's relations with the West and Russia?
A: Ukraine is destined to maneuver, as it needs Western investment and technology, it is moving towards free trade with EU, in what the major suppliers of unprocessed products, which are very strong under the new government, are interested. It is difficult to combine this movement with the movement towards the inclusion of Ukraine into a customs union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. However, the formation of the Customs Union - is also a long process with its problems, and in the future, Ukraine, of course, will look for ways of cooperation with this economic space. We simply have no choice, since one third of our trade accounts for just this space. I think that with goodwill will be defined a trade-off for Ukraine's integration in two directions - Russia and the West.
Q: Yanukovych stated that GUAM has lost its relevance. Can we expect that Ukraine will come out of GUAM and what are the prospects of this organization?
A: There was such a position and it is quite, in my opinion, justified, but knowing Yanukovych and people from his team in person, I think he is not inclined to be in international affairs to be more decisive, what we observed in domestic affairs. Ukraine is truly needs Azerbaijan as a fast growing economy and the owner of energy. If Ukraine's leave from GUAM could damage relations with Azerbaijan, Yanukovych would not do it. Yanukovych's team is clearly focused on maintaining the friendliest relations with Azerbaijan, if necessary - and in the framework of GUAM.
Q: What can Yanukovych's government offer instead of new arrangements with Russia on natural gas pricing, which were discussed between the presidents at a Washington summit?
A: Here is the plot and the expert community yet does not know that what interesting Ukraine could offer Russia in exchange for gas prices. I can only assume in what Russia is interested, but I can not say that this is the subject of the transaction. Russia is interested in the prolongation and some system deciding Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. Now Russia needs a new treaty to replace the old with the changes, which had points such as point of not replacing old ships with new ones that inconvenient for Moscow. This political concession was worth nothing to Ukraine, but still would bring financial dividends. There are other items that may be the subject of arrangements. Russia would like the Russian language to have the status of the state in Ukraine. Another important point in relations between Russia and Ukraine is the desire to solve all the problems with the prices of energy transit through Ukraine. The only way to solve this problem - it is buying a pipe which transports gas to Europe.
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