BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 9. The US Energy Information Administration Agency (EIA) anticipates Brent crude oil price to climb from an average of $90/b in the fourth quarter of 2023 to $94/b in the first half of 2024, Trend reports.
According to the agency, the average Brent crude oil spot price dipped to $91/b in October, down by $3/b compared to September, accompanied by a notable surge in oil price volatility.
The modest upward pressure on oil prices in the upcoming months is influenced by a slight decrease in global oil inventories in the first half of 2024, amidst persistently high risks of supply disruptions, the EIA noted.
Thus, the agency expects Brent spot prices in 2023 to decline to below $84/b - down by $17/b from $101/b in 2022. In 2024, the agency projects Brent sport prices to grow slightly to above $93/b.
With OPEC+ production targets expiring at the end of 2024, the EIA assumes that ongoing voluntary cuts and other factors will keep actual OPEC+ crude oil production well below targets, aiming to restrain increases in global oil inventories.
However, if OPEC+ produces closer to target levels than currently assumed, it could lead to reduced prices in 2024, the agency pointed out.