ADB reduces Uzbekistan economic growth forecast to eight per cent in 2012
Uzbekistan, Tashkent, April 12 / Trend D. Azizov /
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered the growth forecast for Uzbekistan's gross domestic product (GDP) from the previously projected 8.4 per cent to 8 per cent in 2012, the bank's April report 'Asian Development Outlook 2012', stated.
According to a survey, Uzbek economic growth in Uzbekistan will amount to 7.9 per cent in 2013.
ADB analysts said that the industry and service sector will be the main factors of economic growth. The growth of production volumes in agriculture will be achieved by increasing the production of fruits and vegetables.
ADB retained the September forecast of inflation growth in Uzbekistan at 9.5 per cent in 2012. According to the bank, inflation hit 9 per cent in the republic in 2013.
The current account surplus in 2012 will hit 7.5 per cent of GDP compared to the earlier projected 12.6 per cent, with six per cent of GDP in 2013.
Bank experts said that import growth will hit 8.3 per cent in 2012 and decline to 2.8 per cent next year. Uzbekistan's export volume will increase by nine per cent in 2012 and decline by 0.8 per cent in 2013.
In September last year, ADB predicted the growth of Uzbek exports at 3.1 per cent for 2012 and the growth of imports by 16.3 per cent in 2012.
According to bank calculations, Uzbekistan's international reserves will grow to $23 billion in 2012 and up to $ 25 billion in 2013.
The country's external debt will be increased to 20.2 per cent of GDP this year and to 22.8 per cent - next year. According to the official statistics, Uzbekistan's GDP in 2011increased by 8.3 per cent, compared to 2010. According to preliminary estimates at current prices it hit 77 trillion 750.6 soums.
Inflation was 7.6 per cent compared to 7.3 per cent as of 2010.
Industrial production increased by 6.3 per cent and agricultural production by 6.6 per cent last year. The construction work volume increased by 8.5 per cent, consumer goods production by 11 per cent with paid services rendered to the population by 16.1 per cent.
Foreign trade turnover in 2011 increased by 15 per cent up to $25.537 billion compared to 2010. Exports increased by 15.4 per cent, up to $15.027 billion and imports by 14.5 per cent, up to $10.509 billion. The positive balance of Uzbek foreign trade increased by 6.4 per cent taking it up to $4.517 billion.
In 2012, the government forecasted a GDP growth at 8.2 per cent, industrial production by 8.6 per cent and agricultural products by 5.8 per cent. Total capital investments are planned to be increased by 9.3 per cent. Inflation is planned to be kept within seven to nine per cent.
Uzbekistan has been a member of the ADB since 1995. During this period, the bank has approved the crediting of 35 joint projects with a total value of over $ 8.6 billion and with a share of ADB financing, more than $3.8 billion.