JP Morgan: Growth in world oil demand to hit 1.5mln bpd in 2011

Oil&Gas Materials 11 July 2011 18:08 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, July 11 / Trend A.Badalova /

World oil demand will grow by 1.5 million barrels per day to 89.2 million barrels per day in 2011, the largest U.S. bank JP Morgan said in monthly report on oil market.

"Fuzzy economic surveys are the main engine of world oil demand level and a degree of volatility in world prices," the report reads. The bank predicted that world uneconomic growth in 2011 will amount to 4 percent and in 2012 - 4.4 percent.

According to analysts, the level of world oil demand will be 89.8 million bpd in the third quarter and 90.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Of the total oil demand in 2011, 46.1 million bpd will fell to the OECD countries and 43.2 million bpd - non-OECD countries.

JP Morgan predicts an increase in world oil demand by 1.8 million barrels per day to 91 million barrels per day in 2012.

Oil demand in the OECD countries will only slightly increase to 46.2 million bpd in 2012. Oil demand will be 44.7 million bpd in the countries outside the organization.

Oil demand in Asia will be 28.5 million bpd in 2011 and 29.4 million bpd in 2012. Most of the oil demand will fell to China - 10.1 million bpd this year and 10.6 million barrels per day - next year.

Oil supplies by OPEC

JP Morgan analysts forecast an increase in OPEC oil supply by 0.3 to 29.4 million bpd in 2011. According to analysts' expectations, OPEC will increase oil supplies by 0.8 million to 30.2 million bpd in 2012.

Analysts expect OPEC oil supply to reach 29.3 million bpd in the third quarter of 2011 and 29.5 million bpd in the fourth quarter.

Analysts estimate that OPEC oil supply amounted to 29.3 million bpd in June.

Today, the officially established quota of OPEC is 24.84 million bpd.

According to OPEC, the total volume of world oil supply in 2011 will increase by 1.5 million barrels to 89 million bpd and by 1.6 million to 90.6 million bpd in 2012.

Oil supply by non-OPEC countries

According to the bank's analysts, oil supply by non-OPEC countries will rise in 2011 and 2012 by 0.5 million barrels to 51.2 million bpd and 51.7 million bpd, respectively.

JP Morgan predict that the oil production in non-OPEC countries declined in June by 0.12 million bpd to 41.074 million bpd. The oil production in the former Soviet Union countries was 12.6 million bpd in June.