JP Morgan expects slowdown in 2019 global oil demand

Oil&Gas Materials 20 February 2018 12:55 (UTC +04:00)

Baku, Azerbaijan, Feb.20

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

Overall 2018 oil demand growth will stand at 1.8 million barrels per day year-on-year, but 2019 demand growth is pegged at a more modest 1 million barrels per day year-on-year, the US JP Morgan bank said.

This slowdown in demand growth reflects the impact of slowing economic growth globally and higher prices, according to the report obtained by Trend.

As for the global oil supply, the bank analysts estimate that total liquids supply rose by 630,000 barrel per day in 2017 and is expected to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2018.

Within the total global supply, the main driver is non-OPEC supply which is expected to grow by 1.91 million barrels per day in 2018, largely as a result of higher US supply growth, according to JP Morgan.

“Just as shale was the first to respond to the downturn in prices, US shale leads the upturn in activity and output as prices rise,” said the report.

OPEC supply is expected to remain more or less unchanged, as the bank assumes OPEC and non-OPEC show a strong commitment and compliance and extend their cuts well into 2018.

US shale is expected to remain the highlight of global supply story in 2018 as higher oil prices and higher productivity should only mean one thing, a surge in US crude supply, according to the report.


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