BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 18. In 2023, average available liquified natural gas (LNG) supply capacity is projected at some 48 bcm – an increase of some 2.4 bcm a month, Trend reports with reference to the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
However, the OIES report says the increase in capacity is weighted towards the second half of the year.
“Average monthly supply in Q1 2023 was some 46.4 bcm against a target of 47.4 bcm and a Q1 2022 figure of 46 bcm. Therefore, supply in Q1 2023 increased slightly (0.4 Bcm per month, or 1.2 Bcm across the quarter as a whole) over Q1 last year, but was below the expected increase (1.4 Bcm per month, or 4.2 Bcm across the quarter as a whole). Output from Sub-Saharan Africa (mainly Nigeria), the US, and the UAE has been somewhat lower than anticipated and Russian supply has also been lower. However, it should be noted that LNG supply is measured as the cargoes arrive at the importing terminals – the imports basis from Kpler,” the OIES analysts believe.
The report reveals that if supply was measured as the volumes leaving the exporting terminals – the exports basis – then the measured growth in supply would be much bigger.
“The increase in monthly supply (exports basis) between Q1 2023 and Q1 2022 was some 2.1 bcm per month, compared to a measured rise of only 0.4 bcm (imports basis).
Depending on the destination of the LNG exports, the voyage time can be anything from a few days or a week to between 4 and 6 weeks. LNG leaving an exporting terminal, therefore, could easily take a month to arrive at the importing terminal, which is what we are measuring here. The much higher growth in the export-basis measure of supply, therefore, might be expected to impact the import-basis measure of supply with a time lag (even allowing for boil off). Q2 of 2023, therefore, might well see higher growth in LNG imports than expected.”
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