Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 18 / Trend V. Zhavoronkova /
Poor political systems in Central Asia may lead to extremism, experts believe.
"If Central Asian countries were stable and the social and economic situation were better, extremism would not have a chance," German expert on Central Asia Michael Laubsch wrote Trend in an e-mail.
Reports of religious extremism have surfaced more frequently in Central Asia as of late. Many consider the reason to be the intensification of radical groups in neighboring Afghanistan.
However, experts think the threat of terrorism comes from the countries themselves.
"In my opinion, extremism always arises in the country or region itself. It cannot be 'imported' without having a ground in the region itself," Laubsch said.
The reason is the population's social and economic problems, the expert said.
The lack of opportunity for social advancement and continued repression against many Muslims leads them to join fringe Islamic groups, U.S. expert on Central Asia Bruce Pannier wrote Trend via e-mail.
"Every time a Central Asian government, usually the Uzbek government, arrests someone simply because they observe Islamic rituals or had a cousin or other relative who was involved with a banned group, these governments create 10 to 20 (or more) new enemies among the families of the detained," he said.
The failure of rigid governments to acknowledge their own mistakes also leads people to believe there is no legal way to change the system, Pannier said.
The disastrous economic situation and lack of a "normal opposition" also encourages people to express political protest in the religious form, Alexei Malashenko, who heads a religious and political studies program in Eurasia at the Carnegie Moscow Center, told Russia's Voice of America Service.
Thus, Islam becomes the only hope for social justice.
"I do not want to say that most people place their hopes on an Islamic alternative, but this idea has penetrated to the masses," he said.
It is possible to reduce the threat of spreading religious terrorism in the region by improving the lives of the population, the experts believe.
The best way to prevent a rise in Islamic extremism and militancy is to work on improving living conditions, employment opportunities and allow secular opposition parties to play a greater role in politics, thus giving frustrated individuals a vehicle to express their opinion, Pannier said.
Kazakhstan, for example, may not be an ideal society, but there are more opportunities for advancement there than in the rest of Central Asia. The standard of living is also higher in Kazakhstan and the threat of militancy is lower than in the other Central Asian states, the expert said.
The threat is real and could raise tensions and provoke state crackdowns, but "I do not think that at this time there are enough members in radical groups in Central Asia to pose a serious threat of overthrowing any of the governments there," Pannier said.
They could, as they have before, create chaos in the region and cause outside governments to wonder how stable Central Asia really is, the expert said.
"If a group could sustain its presence in Central Asia and carry out even a couple of attacks per year for four or five years straight it could eventually recruit many of the disaffected citizens to join. Then it would be a problem," Pannier said.