Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan. 31 /Trend, E.Ostapenko/
The decision to hold pre-term presidential elections in Kazakhstan is dictated by the interests of the ruling regime to extend the powers of the current state head by the possible change of government in Russia, where presidential elections will be held in 2012.
President Nursultan Nazarbayev on Monday decided not to hold a referendum and suggested to conduct pre-term presidential elections in 2012.
The idea of a referendum is not accidental. Everyone knows that the situation in neighboring Russia is of great importance for the situation in Kazakhstan, said Edige Magauin, an expert on politics in Central Asia.
"It is not without reason that it is said in Kazakhstan that if rain begins in Russia, then Kazakhstan is preparing umbrellas," said Magauin, director of the Kazakh section of 'Radio Azattyk'.
He said the opposition to Putin and Medvedev in Russia is becoming so increasingly that it will prevail in the upcoming 2012 elections. The interest of Nazarbayev's regime is to hold its elections, or simply to extend the mandate before the elections in Russia," he said.
The question of legitimacy of the amendments to the Constitution to replace the presidential elections in 2012 with a referendum was considered by the Constitutional Council of Kazakhstan after Nazarbayev refused to sign the amendments.
On Monday, the Constitutional Council recognized the referendum on extending the current President legally incorrect and contrary to the foundations of democracy.
"We should not harbor illusions that the Constitutional Council of Kazakhstan can independently decide upon such matters, said Magauin. - All steps are thought out in advance, and some corrections are made to the scenario during the development of events."
The West has repeatedly expressed concern about the decision to abandon democratic procedure of presidential elections in Kazakhstan. U.S. Embassy in Kazakhstan twice published statements urging Kazakhstan to follow the commitments made before the international community. Also at the meeting with the Kazakh Foreign Minister in Washington, the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made it clear that the U.S. is not in raptures over this idea.
"In a situation when the West openly speaks that does not support the idea on referendum and is not inclined simply to stand silent, it would be better to decide that a referendum can simply twist in shape and take the form of elections, but again, that these elections would be held by elections in Russia," said Magauin.
Possibly the situation in Belarus played a certain role, he believes. Presidential elections in Belarus last December led to that embargo and sanctions of various kinds were imposed Lukashenko's regime. Nazarbayev can not allow it.