BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 15. Global refining crude throughputs are projected to reach a new annual peak of 84.2 mb/d by December, rebounding from their October low of 81 mb/d, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, Trend reports.
According to the IEA's data, September's global crude runs are now estimated to have averaged 83.1 mb/d, representing a 900,000 b/d increase from the previous month's report.
This surge is attributed to Chinese runs hitting a record 15.7 mb/d, while OECD refining activity, totaling 36.6 mb/d, exceeded earlier estimate by 500,000 b/d, the agency said. However, China's dominant influence on annual growth is expected to diminish as we approach 2024.
In the current year, China contributes 1.5 mb/d to the overall 1.9 mb/d increase, constituting a 75 percent share of growth, the agency noted.
At the same time, this share is projected to decrease to 30 percent next year as new capacity comes online in other regions.
Thus, the IEA has adjusted its 2023 and 2024 forecasts upward by approximately 160,000 b/d each, reaching 82.6 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, respectively. The annual growth projection for crude runs in the following year remains unchanged at 1 mb/d, aligning closely with the anticipated growth in demand.