BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 20. Germany, Austria, Italy, Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary are the most vulnerable European countries to the possible Russian gas cut-off, Trend reports referring to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Gas flows in Adverse Scenario suggests that for Europe consumption without a gas shut-off would be around 525 bcm over the next 12-months. Alternative non-Russian gas supplies are around 472 bcm . This could be supplemented with an additional 17 bcm draw-down of reserves, net over the year (draw-down may be higher at peak demand). This leaves a potential shortfall of 36 bcm, representing 7 percent of annual consumption.
The table below shows the vulnerability of European countries under this Scenario (bcm):
|
Consumption |
Russian supply |
Non-Russian supply |
Reserve draw down |
Demand Compression |
Percent of annual consumption |
|
|
Europe |
525 |
0 |
472 |
17 |
-36 |
-7% |
|
UK and Ireland |
76 |
0 |
76 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
|
Spain and Portugal |
38 |
0 |
38 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
|
Sweden and Denmark |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
|
France, Netherlands, Belgium |
98 |
0 |
96 |
2 |
0 |
0% |
|
Türkiye |
57 |
0 |
57 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
|
Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia |
6 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
|
Poland |
23 |
0 |
22 |
1 |
0 |
0% |
|
Bulgaria and Romania |
15 |
0 |
14 |
1 |
0 |
0% |
|
Croatia and Slovenia |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0% |
|
|
Other Europe |
7 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
|
Germany and Austria |
99 |
0 |
78 |
6 |
-15 |
-15% |
|
Italy |
73 |
0 |
58 |
4 |
-11 |
-15% |
|
Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary |
25 |
0 |
12 |
3 |
-10 |
-40% |
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