BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 16. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts Tajikistan's GDP growth at 7.5 percent in 2023 and 2024, Trend reports via the latest 'Regional Economic Prospects' outlook from the bank.
According to the report, this forecast has been revised down by 0.5 percent both for 2023 and 2024, compared to the previous outlook dated February 2023.
At the same time, the country's economic growth in 2022 stood at 8 percent, the report noted.
"Tajikistan’s economy has proven extremely resilient to adverse external shocks such as COVID-19 and Russia’s war on Ukraine. The economy expanded by 8 percent in 2022, primarily on the back of consumer demand backed by the inflows of remittances. The banking sector was among the primary beneficiaries, enjoying strong growth in liquidity and fee-based earnings. Growth continued in January-February 2023, as fixed capital investment added 4.6 percent year-on-year. Sectors that continue to perform strongly include industrial production, agriculture, trucking, hospitality and retail trade," the report said.
However, despite the downwards revision, Tajikistan's GDP growth for the reporting period is expected to be the highest among Central Asian economies.
"Strong GDP growth is expected to continue in 2023 and 2024, reaching 7.5 percent in both years on the back of Russia’s demand for Tajik labour, China’s re-opening, as well as continued development of the Roghun hydro power plant and transport infrastructure. The recently introduced Business Support Programme for 2023-2027 coupled with reforms to tax administration and construction licencing may further facilitate private-sector investment and growth," the report added.