BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 1. Global natural gas demand is expected to grow by 18.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) from 2021 through 2045 and to reach 85 mboe/d, Trend reports via the latest World Oil Outlook (WOO) from OPEC.
According to the report, gas is set to become the second largest fuel in the mix after 2030, due to decline in coal demand.
“It is assumed that natural gas will remain a long-term fuel of choice, despite the current market distortions. The long-term potential for natural gas is based on the sufficient gas resources and its relatively low CO2 emissions, which is why many countries intend to increase the share of gas in their energy mix. Its share in the energy mix increases, from just above 23 percent in 2021 to almost 24.5 percent in 2045,” the report said.
Meanwhile, growth in global gas demand comes almost merely from non-OECD countries led by China, India, and OPEC countries. Overall, gas demand in non-OECD countries is projected to increase by 19.6 mboe/d to 56.3 mboe/d in 2045. This means that the share of non-OECD countries in total gas demand will rise to 66 percent in 2045 from 55 percent in 2021, WOO said.
“In total, accounting for the drop in coal demand, primary energy demand for fossil fuels increases by almost 15 mboe/d between 2021 and 2045. At the same time, demand for lower carbon fuels, including nuclear and renewables, sees a gain of more than 50 mboe/d in the Reference Case. Despite this strong growth in lower carbon energy sources, however, the share of fossil fuels only declines by around 10 percentage points to 69.5 percent by 2045. For oil and gas alone, their combined market share in the global primary energy mix is expected to remain above 50 percent throughout the outlook period,” the report added.
---
Follow the author on Twitter: @mariiiakhm