OPEC: Iran’s oil output increases to 2.716 mbpd

Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec. 11

By Dalga Khatinoglu, Umid Niayesh - Trend:

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its monthly report on December 10, saying Iran's crude oil output increased by 36,800 barrels per day in November compared to the previous month.

According to the report, Iran produced on average 2.716 million barrels per day (mbpd) in November based on secondary sources.

Iran's oil production is 3.3 mbpd for November according to an OPEC report based on direct communication, indicating a 584,000 barrel difference between OPEC's estimates and Iran's alleged figure.

Iran's oil production has decreased by 912,000 bpd since 2011, according to the report.

The report says that OPEC members' total crude oil output dropped by about 193,200 bpd in November compared to October reaching 29.633 mbpd. The biggest drop in the crude production level belongs to Libya with a 140,900 bpd decrease in a month.

Saudi Arabia's oil production also decreased by 87,600 bpd and reached 9.626 mbpd in November compared to October.

The value of the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) was down $1.72/b, reaching a monthly average of $104.97/b in November. Compared with the same period last year, the Basket year-to-date value of $105.72/b shows a lag of almost $4 or 3.6 per cent. The ORB year-to-date value this time last year was around $109.70/b.

The ORB in November fell below $105/b for the first time since July. A key factor behind the decline in crude oil prices was a reduced refinery crude intake due to scheduled turnarounds, as well as dismal margins. All Basket component values saw losses in November, but at varying levels.

Crude futures prices also declined in November for the second month in a row. High crude inventories and rising supply in the US weighed heavily on Nymex WTI. The positive outcome at the Iran-P5+1 talks in Geneva also impacted on the market.

The Basket began to improve at the end of the month and into December to stand at $107.72/b on 9 December.

'World oil demand is estimated to average 89.79 mb/d in 2013, representing a growth of 0.8 mb/d compared to the previous year and remains unchanged from the previous report.

'For 2014, growth is expected to increase to around 1.04 mb/d to reach to 90.84 mb/d. Non-OECD countries are projected to lead oil demand growth with 1.2 mb/d, while OECD consumption is seen continuing to decline, but at a lower rate of 0.2 mb/d, an improvement over the previous year', the report said.

The OPEC report says that the demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is forecast to average 29.9 mbpd, unchanged from the previous report and 0.6 mbpd less than last year. The demand for OPEC crude in 2014 is revised to be 29.6 mbpd.

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