BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov.13
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The largest increases in oil production between 2018 and 2040 will come from the United States, Iraq and Brazil while the share in oil production from countries in OPEC plus Russia falls to 47 percent for much of the 2020s, a level not seen since the 1980s, Trend reports citing the World Energy Outlook 2019 of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“In the Stated Policies Scenario, global oil rises by around 1 mb/d on average every year until 2025. Oil use in passenger cars peaks in the late 2020s and during the 2030s demand increases by only 0.1 mb/d on average each year. There is no definitive peak in oil use overall, as there are continued increases in petrochemicals, trucks and the shipping and aviation sectors,” said the IEA.
In the Sustainable Development Scenario, determined policy interventions lead to a peak in global oil demand within the next few years. Demand falls by more than 50 percent in advanced economies between 2018 and 2040 and by 10 percent in developing economies.
“Reductions in oil use in road transport are particularly significant. By 2040, 50% of cars are electric as are most urban buses; almost 2 million barrels of oil equivalent (mboe) per day biofuels are consumed in the aviation and shipping sectors and almost 20 percent of the fuel used by trucks worldwide is low-carbon. The only sector to see demand growth is petrochemicals: while the rate of plastics recycling more than doubles (from around 15 percent today to 35 percent in 2040), demand for oil as a feedstock nonetheless increases by almost 3 mb/d to 2040,” reads the IEA report.
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