BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 7. Azerbaijan has a strong position to increase its gas market share in Europe, Cyril Widdershoven, a Middle East geopolitical specialist and energy analyst, a partner at Dutch risk consultancy VEROCY, and Global Head Strategy Risk at Berry Commodities told Trend.
He believes that Azerbaijan’s increasing its market share in Europe over the coming decade is a real option, as far as the market potential/demand in Europe is clearly there.
“Whatever is being said in European media or by European governments, the overall supply is not yet enough to cope with potential disruptions or outright harsh winter. Until now, markets are looking at winter storage 2022-2023, but the main question will also be what will be the demand situation and supply during total of 2023,” said Widdershoven.
The expert went on to add that for new or existing producers, the market is clearly strong, European demand is not going to be substantially down, while potential supply of LNG is under pressure, if Asia is again reentering the market fully. Azerbaijani gas supplies could and most probably will be taken 100 percent by European partners, whatever the available volumes. Geopolitics of course are also playing a role, and Brussels has shown a keen interest in Azerbaijan
“As stated above, the demand is very strong, so all is needed to cope with substitution of Russian gas after winter 2022-2023. More is needed, and could be available from Azerbaijan. Considering geopolitics and realignment in the markets, Baku will be having a strong position to increase its market share. Still, insight of Azerbaijan emphasis should be on high on new upstream investments (volumes), more infrastructure and pipelines, and setting up in-depth geopolitical-economic relations with EU/NATO,” said Widdershoven.
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