Uncertain prospects for nuclear deal with Iran

Nuclear Program Materials 25 May 2015 17:02 (UTC +04:00)

Baku, Azerbaijan, May 25
By Elmira Tariverdiyeva - Trend:

The nuclear agreement between Iran and the West is far from completion. But today there are many intrigues, misunderstandings over it, as well as assumptions about the further consequences after the transaction.

The latest important news is that Iran and the "six" mediators in the negotiations on Iran's nuclear program have agreed on simultaneous lifting of economic and financial sanctions imposed on the country, Kamaleddin Pirmoazzen, Iranian MP, said.

This agreement is important because up until now the lifting of sanctions remained one of the major contentious issues between the sides.

The US insisted on the gradual lifting of sanctions, but Iran - on immediate lifting. The Iranian authorities also wanted the sanctions to be lifted simultaneously with entering the comprehensive joint action plan into force.

Apparently, in this regard, Iran has won, and the lifting of sanctions can happen after June 30 - the deadline to conclude the nuclear deal.

However, there are some nuances about the lifting of sanctions against Iran, which raise questions.

First, the transaction will unlikely be concluded, despite the deadline. This deadline for agreement is not the first one and decision can be postponed again and again for an indefinite term. Secondly, it is not quite clear whether Iran is ready to agree to all the conditions of the West on the issue of IAEA inspection visits to the country's nuclear facilities.

Tehran has repeatedly stressed that no access to Iranian facilities, which are not related to the nuclear field, will be given to IAEA inspectors. However, the West and Iran may have drastically differing views on the affiliation of military facilities to the nuclear area, which could be another stumbling block in finding the compromises.

Aside from that, the one-time lifting of sanctions is questionable, since the US Senate approved on May 8 a bill that gives Congress the right to review within 30 days the deals on Iran's nuclear program and banning the US president from removing sanctions from Tehran without consent of the lawmakers.

And the congressmen's lifting the economic sanctions from Iran is even yet out of question. The point here is that President Barack Obama has yet to try to persuade the Republicans at least not to block the nuclear deal itself.

Meanwhile, there are a lot of inconsistencies in the mechanism of preventing the violation of the deal conditions by Tehran. The representatives of Obama administration have repeatedly stated that in the case of revealing violation of conditions by Iran, the sanction regime will have to be returned automatically. Moreover, the US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said that the permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia, China, UK, US, France) and Germany that are included in the P5+1 share this position.

However, on May 14, Russia's permanent representative to the UN Vitaly Churkin said that the sanctions imposed on Iran could be resumed automatically if it violates the agreement with the P5 +1.

These disagreements and misunderstandings cause more and more doubts that to the great delight of all parties to the negotiations, the nuclear agreement will be signed by June 30 and the sanctions imposed on Iran will be lifted.

Edited by CN

Elmira Tariverdiyeva is Trend Agency's staff writer, follow her on Twitter @EmmaTariver