BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 16. Russia's oil output in 2023 is projected to drop by 350,000 b/d year-on-year, Trend reports citing the latest oil market outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
According to the report, this forecast has been revised up by 180,000 b/d, compared to the previous assessment.
"Russian crude output held broadly steady in April at 9.6 mb/d as exports and refinery runs held up. Moscow extended its previously announced 500,000 b/d production cut, which applies to crude oil, until the end of the year. The reduction is to be made "from the average production levels as assessed by the secondary sources for the month of February 2023" (9.8 mb/d), according to the statement released after the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting in early April. That means Russia must still cut a further 300 kb/d in May to bring itself into line," the report said.
Russia's total output of crude oil, condensates and NGLs in April 2023 was relatively stable at 10.93 mb/d – 470,000 b/d lower than before Russia-Ukraine war started in February 2022.
Thus, Russia's oil production for the whole year is expected to stand at 10.7 mb/d.
As the IEA noted, Russian oil supply has demonstrated resilience in the wake of the war in Ukraine, with crude exports redirected to alternative markets. Despite geopolitical tensions, the availability of deeply discounted prices has enticed both traders and refiners to handle Russian barrels, leading to an upward revision of Russian output projections for the current year.