...

Analysts' oil price forecasts for 2011-2012

Oil&Gas Materials 27 July 2011 13:45
Oil prices on world markets showed a mostly upward trend last week. As a result of last week, the rise in prices for the U.S. WTI light/oil hit 2.7 percent, while North Sea Brent hit 1.2 percent.

Azerbaijan, Baku, July 26 / Trend, A.Badalova /

Oil prices on world markets showed a mostly upward trend last week. As a result of last week, the rise in prices for the U.S. WTI light/oil hit 2.7 percent, while North Sea Brent hit 1.2 percent.

However, from the beginning of this week there is a decline in oil rates, contributed by concerns about the U.S. debt problems. In this regard, expectations are set for a weakening demand of energy resources.

Following the results of Monday, July 25, WTI September futures at NYMEX decreased by $0.67 to $99.2 a barrel. Brent September futures at LSE decreased by $0.73 to $117.94 a barrel.

As forecasted by U.S. Goldman Sachs bank analysts, oil prices will continue to rise next year due to an increased demand for energy resources against the background of the world economy's recovery. According to U.S. analysts' expectations, the price for North Sea Brent will reach $111 per barrel by mid 2012, while by later in the year, prices will reach $115 per barrel. Earlier the bank analysts forecasted Brent prices at $120 per barrel by late 2011.

Analysts of one of the British consulting companies on economic studies at Capital Economics forecast a drop in oil prices by late this year against the background of decreased world demands and recovery of the U.S. dollar rate. According to British analysts, Brent prices by late 2011 will drop to $85 and remain unchanged in 2012 and 2013.

As forecasted by U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley, an average Brent prices will hit $120 per barrel in 2011 and $130 per barrel in 2012.

The U.S. major bank JP Morgan analysts increased their forecasts on WTI and Brent prices for 2011 this month. According to the analysts' new forecasts, an average Brent prices will hit $112 for barrel compared to $107 per barrel, forecasted earlier. WTI prices will reach $98 per barrel compared to the previously forecasted $93 per barrel.
Analysts forecast an average Brent price for 2012 at $124 per barrel, while WTI prices are forecast at $114 per barrel.

Barclays Capital investment bank's analysts forecast an average Brent price at $112 per barrel in 2011 and 2012, WTI prices at $100 per barrel in 2011, and $110 per barrel in 2012.

As forecasted by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), this year an average WTI price will be $98.43 per barrel and $102.5 in 2012.

Oil price forecast for 2011-2012 (in $/barrel)

2011

2012

Goldman Sachs

111 (late third quarter) (B)

115 (late 2011 ) ( B)

130 ( mid-2012) ( B)

Capital Economics

85 ( B)

85 (B)

Morgan Stanley

120 (B)

130 (B)

JP Morgan

112 (B)

98 (W)

124 (B)

114 (W)

Barclays Capital

112 (B)

100 (W)

112 (B)

110 (W)

EIA

98 .43 ( W)

102 .5 ( W)

W - WTI

B - Brent

Latest

Latest