Fed nods to concerns but still sees US rate hikes

Fed nods to concerns but still sees US rate hikes

Federal Reserve policymakers on Friday signaled further interest rate increases ahead, even as they raised relatively muted concerns over a potential global slowdown that has markets betting heavily that the rate-hike cycle will soon peter out, Reuters reported.

The widening chasm between market expectations and the interest-rate path the Fed laid out just two months ago underscores the biggest question facing US central bankers: How much weight to give a growing number of potential red flags, even as robust US economic growth continues to push down unemployment and create jobs?

“We are at a point now where we really need to be especially data dependent,” Richard Clarida, the Fed’s newly appointed vice chair, said in a CNBC interview. “I think certainly where the economy is today, and the Fed’s projection of where it’s going, that being at neutral would make sense,” he added, defining “neutral” as the policy rate somewhere between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent.

Such a range implies anywhere from two to six more rate hikes, and Clarida declined to say how many he would prefer.

He did say he is optimistic that US productivity is rising, a view that suggests he would not see faster economic or wage growth as necessarily feeding into higher inflation or, necessarily, requiring tighter policy. But he also sounded a mild warning.

“There is some evidence of global slowing,” Clarida said. “That’s something that is going to be relevant as I think about the outlook for the US economy, because it impacts big parts of the economy through trade and through capital markets and the like.”

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan, in a separate interview with Fox Business, also said he is seeing a growth slowdown in Europe and China.

“It’s my own judgment that global growth is going to be a little bit of a headwind, and it may spill over to the United States,” Kaplan said.

The Fed raised interest rates three times this year and is expected to raise its target again next month, to a range of 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent. As of September, Fed policymakers expected to need to increase rates three more times next year, a view they will update next month.

Over the last week, betting in contracts tied to the Fed’s policy suggests that even two rate hikes might be a stretch. The yield on fed fund futures maturing in January 2020, seen by some as an end-point for the Fed’s current rate-hike cycle, dropped sharply to just 2.76 percent over six trading days.

At the same time, long-term inflation expectations have been dropping quickly as well. The so-called breakeven inflation rate on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, has fallen sharply in the last month. The breakeven rate on five-year TIPS US5YTIP=RR hit the lowest since late 2017 earlier this week.

Those market moves together suggest traders are taking the prospect of a slowdown seriously, limiting how far the Fed will end up raising rates.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker also sounded a skeptical note.

“At this point I’m not convinced a December rate move is the right move,” he was quoted as saying, citing muted inflation readings.

But not all policymakers seemed that worried.

Sitting with his back to a map of the world in a ballroom in Chicago’s Waldorf Astoria Hotel, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans downplayed risks to his outlook, noting that the leveraged loans that some of his colleagues have raised concerns about are being taken out by “big boys and girls” who understand the risks.

He told reporters he still believes rates should rise to about 3.25 percent so as to mildly restrain growth and bring unemployment, now at 3.7 percent, back up to a more sustainable level.

Asked about risks from the global slowdown, he said he hears more talk about it but that it is not really in the numbers yet. But the next six months, he said, bear close watching.

“There’s not a great headline” about risks to the economy right now, Evans told reporters. “International is a little slower; Brexit – nobody’s asked me about that, thank you; (the slowing) housing market: I think all of those are in the mix for uncertainties that everybody’s facing,” he said.

“But at the moment, it’s not enough to upset or adjust the trajectory that I have in mind.”

Still, Evans added, the risks should not be counted out: “They could take on more life more easily because they are sort of more top of mind, if not in the forecast.”

Production of electric cars in Iran needs more motivation - ministry official
Production of electric cars in Iran needs more motivation - ministry official
Iran ready to have closer ties with Saudi Arabia, FM says
Iran ready to have closer ties with Saudi Arabia, FM says
Iran talks insurance data in its mining sector
Iran talks insurance data in its mining sector
Loading Bars
Latest
Romania to ease COVID-19 restrictions from Saturday
U.S. city Columbus agrees to pay 10 mln USD to family of unarmed black man killed by police
3 rockets fired from Syria toward Israel
Indonesia reports 2,633 new COVID-19 cases, 107 new deaths
Turkey reports over 14 400 COVID-19 cases)
New project 'Log in Georgia' to give access to high-speed internet to people in rural areas
Head of Kazakhstan holds meeting with World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia
Lithuanian company launches innovative complex solution in Azerbaijan's financial sector
5.2 mln Ethiopians in restive northern region need food aid - UN
Improved coronavirus conditions lead to further relaxation of restrictions in Cyprus
Israel's annual inflation up 0.8 pct, highest in nearly 2 years
Chairs of Azerbaijani Parliament, Turkish National Assembly talk issues of mutual interest
COVID-19 kills 202 more Iranians over past 24 hours
Lithuania gifts 15,000 Covid-19 vaccines to Georgia
Turkey to gradually relax COVID-19 measures, normalcy in June
President Tokayev receives Finnish Minister for Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade
First Vice-President Mehriban Aliyeva made another post from Karabakh (PHOTO/VIDEO)
Germany's COVID-19 incidence rate drops below 100 for first time in two months
Georgia updates environmental targets with support from EU4Climate project
Azerbaijani FM, high-ranked EU official discuss Armenian-Azerbaijani border situation
Extra costs to air fares for PCR testing almost double flight cost - IATA
SOCAR to supply Rosneft’s oil products to Baltic states, Ukraine, Poland
Google leads U.S. business push to preserve work permits for H-1B spouses
Production of electric cars in Iran needs more motivation - ministry official
Azerbaijan, US exchange views on Armenian-Azerbaijani border situation
Azerbaijan shares data on number of vaccinated citizens for May 14
Georgia negotiating with South African, Polish companies to manufacture military UAVs
Second batch of Sputnik V vaccine expected to be delivered to India by end of the week
London May cocoa expiry sees 72,230 tonnes tendered
Azerbaijan confirms 326 more COVID-19 cases, 1,262 recoveries
Azerbaijan names date of issuing tickets for UEFA EURO 2020 matches in Baku
Afghan president calls Azerbaijani president
Wizz Air joins airlines cancelling Tel Aviv flights
Georgia receives financing from WB toward cost of energy supply reliability
More Azerbaijani enterprises to export tomatoes to Russia
'Lancet report on India COVID-19 response another attempt to undermine developing country's ability to challenge big pharma's monopoly'
Kazakh telecommunications company opens tender to buy station for wells management
Russia reports 9,462 daily COVID-19 cases
Azerbaijani MoD names number of commissioned military units in liberated areas (PHOTO)
Total assets of INPEX rise in Q1 2021
INPEX sees decrease in net natural gas sales
INPEX Corporation increases net sales of crude oil
Turkish company Chalik Holding to build new wind farm in Georgia
No oil deliveries planned from Azerbaijan to Belarus in May
Revenues of Azerbaijan State Maritime Agency decrease
Kazakhstan's ERG eyeing more investments into future projects
Kazakhstan sees decrease in trade with Netherlands
Kazakhstan, France discuss fuel energy cooperation prospects
Georgia reports 1,390 new cases of coronavirus for May 14
France's Macron to go down in history as killer of OSCE Minsk Group
Airbnb bookings jump 52% as vaccinations spur vacation rental demand
SOCAR ready to share capacity of Southern Gas Corridor with Turkmenistan
Kazakhstan decreases exports to Hungary
Azerbaijani oil prices decline
Russian IrAero to launch flights to Azerbaijan soon
Zulfiya Khanbabayeva to be the next narrator of Nar's ‘Reading hour’ project (PHOTO)
Apple supplier Foxconn reports Q1 profit T$28.2 bln, beats estimates
Kazakh gas supply company opens tender for pipeline maintenance
Georgia reveals rating of its largest wine and spirits companies
Georgian Geofresh company eyes Europe, Dubai to expand exports
Georgian Adjara creating new platform for tourism development
Turkey discloses number of ships received by Tuzla port
Turkish ministry discloses volume of cargo handled through Bartin port
Sweden, WB supporting Georgia by addressing wastewater treatment challenges
IMF underlines successfully completed four-year extended program in Georgia
Georgia considers opening of land borders
UN Secretary General calls for immediate cessation of hostilities in Gaza Strip and Israel
Kazakhstan requires sustainable management practices for natural resources - UNIDO
Iran’s FM meets with Spanish counterpart
Kazakhstan reports 2,549 more COVID-19 cases, total at 353,140
Turkey reports 11,534 new COVID-19 cases, 5,083,996 in total
6.0-magnitude quake strikes off Japan's Fukushima Prefecture, no tsunami warning issued
Colonial Pipeline restarts entire pipeline system - company statement
Hamas launches 100 more missiles in direction of Ashkelon
More than 745,000 COVID-19 infections detected worldwide over past 24 hours - WHO
UN Security Council to hold open session on Israel and Gaza Strip on May 16
Oil prices drop as U.S. pipeline resumes operations
Latvia eases entry rules for vaccinated travelers
Three rockets launched toward Israel from Lebanon, no damage -Israeli military
Africa's COVID-19 cases surpass 4.66 mln
Over 500 residential buildings razed by Israeli airstrikes in Gaza Strip
Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry issues statement on tension on Armenian-Azerbaijani border
China's Qinghai donates anti-pandemic supplies to Kyrgyzstan
Azerbaijani FM talks tension on Azerbaijani-Armenian border with OSCE Chairman-in-Office
Georgian's commercial banks see increase in number of total loans
Azerbaijani, Russian FMs exchange views on tensions on Azerbaijani-Armenian border
Overseas election headquarters established at Iran’s foreign ministry
Sputnik V approved for use in Republic of Maldives
Azerbaijan shares data on number of vaccinated citizens for May 13
Azerbaijan confirms 509 more COVID-19 cases, 1,427 recoveries
COVID-19 cases decrease in 80 Turkish provinces in a week
Tajikistan delegation to visit Uzbekistan on May 14
Gaza death toll jumps to 84 as Israeli air raids intensify
Musk decries bitcoin's 'insane' energy use after Tesla payment U-turn
Azerbaijani president got touched by National leader Heydar Aliyev's words about Shusha (VIDEO)
Azerbaijani president once again says at Jidir Plain in Shusha - Karabakh is Azerbaijan! (VIDEO)
EU countries urged to halt non-essential travel from India
U.S. weekly jobless claims fall
Gaza flare-up further weakens shekel
Georgia increases aviation fuel imports
All news