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Possible increase of Iran's crude oil sales to depend on outcome of Vienna talks

Oil&Gas Materials 14 December 2021 10:44 (UTC +04:00)
Possible increase of Iran's crude oil sales to depend on outcome of Vienna talks

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec. 14

By Elnur Baghishov – Trend:

Iran currently exports about 900,000 barrels of crude oil per day, a member of the Energy Committee of the Iranian Parliament Habib Aghajari told Trend.

According to the official, this figure is reflected in the latest statistics submitted by the Iranian government to parliament.

“Taking into account the mentioned volume of crude oil exports, Iran is estimated to reach 1.2 million barrels of crude oil sales per day in the country's budget project for next year (March 21, 2022 through March 20, 2023),” he added.

Aghajari also noted that there is progress in the nuclear talks between Iran and the 4+1 group in Vienna.

Aghajari expressed hope that the talks will eventually reach a positive conclusion and wrap up with an agreement. The official said that the achievable Iranian government's agreement with the US will result in the lifting of oil sanctions against Iran and an increase in Iran's crude oil sales.

Aghajari also pointed out that the price of oil is planned for $60 per barrel in Iran's budget.

On December 12, 2021, the Iranian government submitted the budget project for the next Iranian year (March 21, 2022 through March 20, 2023) to the parliament. In total, Iran's state budget for next year will amount to 36.3 quadrillion rials (about $864 billion). So, the government's total budget revenues will amount to 15 quadrillion rials (about $358 billion), while the revenues of state-owned companies, state-owned enterprises and banks will amount to 22.3 quadrillion rials (about $531 billion).

"Maybe, $60 a barrel doesn't seem too logical now. Depending on how the talks in Vienna end, Iran's daily oil sales may exceed 1.2 million barrels. So, the oil price in the budget may be adjusted," he said.

In total, the value of Iran's crude oil, gas condensate and gas exports are expected to reach 3.8 quadrillion rials (about $90.4 billion) next year. This is 8.5 percent more than the estimated figure in Iran’s budget for current year (March 21, 2021 through March 20, 2022).

The next round of nuclear talks between Iran and the 4 + 1 group (Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany) began on November 29, 2021 in Vienna, Austria.

Back in January 2016, JCPOA was launched between Iran and the P5+1 group (US, Russia, China, UK, France, and Germany) in connection with Iran's nuclear program.

In May 2018, the US announced its withdrawal from the deal and imposed sanctions on Iran in November of the same year. The sanctions affected Iranian oil exports, more than 700 banks, companies, and individuals. The sanctions have resulted in the freezing of Iranian assets abroad.

To preserve the agreements reached as part of the JCPOA, the European signatories of the deal started in January 2019 that a financial mechanism for maintaining trade with Iran called INSTEX was formed.

On May 8, 2019, Iran announced that it had ceased fulfilling its commitments regarding the sale of over 300 kilograms of uranium, as stated in the deal, basing its decision on the other signatories that have not fulfilled their obligations. On July 7, Iran announced that it will not be fulfilling its commitments regarding the enrichment of uranium at 3.67 percent and the reconstruction of the Arak Heavy Water Reactor Facility as stated in the deal.

Iran announced that it will enrich uranium using next-generation centrifuges and will not mix it with the enriched uranium residues as part of the third step of reducing commitments in JCPOA on Sept.5.

On Nov. 5, 2019, Iran announced that it took the fourth step in connection with reducing its commitments to the nuclear agreement. So, uranium gas is being pumped to the centrifuges at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.

On Jan.2020, Iran took the last fifth step in reducing the number of its commitments within JCPOA.

In late 2020, the Iranian parliament has decided to implement a strategic plan to tackle the sanctions, citing the non-implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed between Iran and six countries and the imposition of sanctions on Iran. According to the decision of the Iranian parliament, as of February 23, Iran suspended the implementation of additional steps and an additional protocol provided for in the nuclear deal.

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