BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 8. The continued shift in LNG flows away from Asia Pacific to Europe is unlikely in 2023 since the increase in LNG imports in both regions may be satisfied by new LNG supply coming to the market, Trend reports with reference to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
The GECF report reveals that although Europe is expected to rely on higher LNG imports to offset the decline in pipeline gas imports this year, the forecasted decline in gas consumption and higher gas storage levels at the end of winter will limit the increase in LNG imports to the region.
"In 2023, global LNG imports are forecasted to increase by 4-4.5% (16-18 Mt) to absorb the new LNG supply coming to the market (Figure 115). China’s LNG imports could increase by 10% (6-8 Mt), driven by the recovery in gas consumption as economic and industrial activity picks up. However, China’s LNG imports are not expected to return to the 2021 high this year due to forecasted increases in domestic gas production and pipeline gas imports. In addition, Europe’s LNG imports are forecasted to expand by around 4 percent (4-6 Mt) to compensate for a further decline in pipeline gas imports. This represents a significant slowdown in the pace of growth in LNG imports from 2022 since the region is expected to end the winter season with significantly higher gas in storage, and gas consumption is forecasted to decrease for the second consecutive year," the report reads.
GECF analysts note that in Japan and South Korea, LNG imports are forecasted to decline by 4% (2-3 Mt) and 3% (1-2 Mt), respectively, due to higher nuclear availability in both countries.
"Meanwhile, the cooling of spot LNG prices in Asia Pacific is expected to drive a recovery in LNG imports in the Indian sub-continent by 11% (3-4 Mt). Furthermore, the start of LNG imports and higher LNG demand in Southeast Asian countries, upon declining gas production and increasing gas consumption, are expected to contribute to a jump in LNG imports in the sub-continent by 18% (3-4 Mt). Finally, LAC’s LNG imports are forecasted to grow by 14% (1-2 Mt), while LNG imports in MENA and North America are forecasted to remain flat."
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