BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 12. Brent spot price will average $91 per barrel in 4Q2023 and is likely to rise to an average of $96 per barrel in 2Q2024, with some mild downward price pressures emerging in 2H2024, Trend reports.
According to the estimations made by the US Energy Information Administration Agency (EIA), Brent crude oil spot price saw an increase through most of the past month but dipped below $90 per barrel during the first week of October.
Thus, the EIA anticipates that crude oil prices will experience an upward trend in the coming months, reflecting expectations of tightening global oil market dynamics.
In September, the Brent crude oil price averaged $94 per barrel, marking an $8 per barrel increase compared to August and a $19 per barrel rise since June. This price surge in September can be attributed to Saudi Arabia's extension of voluntary crude oil production cuts until year-end and a decrease in the US commercial crude oil inventories, which reached their lowest levels since early 2022 by the end of September, the agency explained.
The EIA current assessment suggests that global oil inventories are decreasing by 0.2 mb/d in 2H2023. The agency projects that inventory reductions will persist at this pace in 1Q2024, mainly due to OPEC+ production cuts maintaining global oil production below the level of global oil demand.
For the remaining three quarters of 2024, inventories are expected to remain relatively balanced, as global oil consumption growth slows while production growth accelerates. Consequently, the forecast for the annual average Brent spot price in 2024 is $95 per barrel, which is $7 per barrel higher than the previous month's outlook, the agency added.