BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 17. Global refinery throughputs are expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year, Trend reports citing the latest oil market outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
According to the report, world refinery throughputs in the 1Q2023 are forecast at 81.1 mb/d, with further increase to 81.4 mb/d in the 2Q2023, 82.8 mb/d - in the 3Q2023, 82.9 mb/d - in the 4Q2023.
Thus, world refinery runs are forecast to average 82 mb/d for the whole year. At the same time, forecast has been downgraded slightly by 0.1 mb/d from the last month's assessment.
"Second quarter crude runs will rise 2.1 mb/d year-on-year, double the rate of growth in 1Q23. This is driven both by the normalisation of US crude runs after a lacklustre start to the year and materially higher Chinese crude runs compared to a weak 2Q22 baseline. Over the course of 2023, crude runs will approach pre-Covid levels but remain some 0.3 mb/d below 2019 average throughputs," the report said.
At the same time, OECD refinery throughput of 35.4 mb/d in February was 0.2 mb/d ahead of last month’s expectations, based on monthly submitted data, but nevertheless 0.2 mb/d lower year-on-year.
"European runs outpaced our estimates by 0.2 mb/d, while OECD Asia and Americas were broadly as expected. OECD Asia and Americas were down 0.1 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d year-on-year respectively. OECD Europe runs were 0.2 mb/d higher year-on-year. Prospects for crude demand diverge in the short term, as Atlantic Basin refineries have largely exited planned maintenance, while Japanese and Korean refineries are at the start of their turnaround season," the report said.
Meanwhile, non-OECD crude runs in 1Q23 were weaker than expected, with Brazil and Iraq both well below our forecast. The IEA's assumption of higher crude oil consumption in Africa was tempered by reports of delays in the reopening of the 100,000 barrel refining facility in Cape Town. Given that the IEA now expects the Nigerian refinery in Dangote to start commercial operations only in 2024, African oil reserves in 2023 will remain at a low level in recent months.