BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 17. Oil output from non-OPEC+ producers in 2023 is expected to increase by 1.7 mb/d year-on-year, Trend reports citing the latest oil market outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
"Output from non-OPEC+ countries rose by 90,000 b/d month-on-month in April to 49.1 mb/d. Seasonal biofuel gains topped all other sources, adding 310,000 b/d. Robust performances from the US and Norway round out the top sources of growth as three new offshore projects saw first oil in those two countries. Brazil and Canada saw the biggest declines in April, dropping 200,000 b/d and 140,000 b/d month-on-month respectively as maintenance and other downtime hampered operations," the report said.
According to the report, the growth forecast for the current year has been downgraded by 200,000 b/d, compared to the previous assessment.
Thus, non-OPEC+ oil output in 2023 is projected to stand at average of 49.5 mb/d.
In particular, US liquids supply is expected to grow by 940,000 b/d to total 18.8 mb/d, while Canadian supply is forecast to grow by 60,000 b/d to 5.8 mb/d on average. Brazil's production is expected to reach a new record high of 3.3 mb/d in 2023 - up by 200,000 b/d year-on-year.
"UK supply declined by 70,000 b/d month-on-month in March to 840,000 b/d after a brief reversal of losses in February. Production falls through June by a further 120,000 b/d, following seasonal trends. For the year, UK output should average 770,000 b/d, down 60,000 b/d from 2022. Data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) show production in March rose by 70,000 b/d to 2.1 mb/d as Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup phase 2 project found its stride. After a slow start in late 2022, the field is pushing 700,000 b/d and the operator is discussing increasing the total capacity from 720,000 b/d to 755,000 b/d. Additionally, April saw Equinor bring online the Njord satellite field Bauge and Neptune Energy commissioned its Fenja field, also a Njord satellite. Together these two fields hold 110 million barrels of recoverable resources and are expected to produce 60,000 b/d at peak. Supply in 2023 is expected to grow 100,000 b/d year-on-year to 2 mb/d," the report added.