Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan.24 / Trend N.Ismayilova /
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has developed two scenarios for development of the Azerbaijani economy as a result of consultations with the country's government on Article IV.
According to the baseline scenario, the IMF forecasts GDP growth in Azerbaijan to be 3.7 per cent in 2012, 1.9 per cent in 2013, 2.8 per cent in 2014, 2.9 per cent in 2015 and 3 per cent in 2016.
The IMF estimates growth of oil GDP to be 1 per cent in 2012, 2.6 per cent decrease in 2013, 0.1 per cent in 2014, 0.1 per cent in 2015 and a 0 per cent growth in 2016.
The IMF estimates growth of non-oil GDP to be 6 per cent in 2012, 5.5 per cent in 2013, and 5 per cent in 2014, 2015 and 2016.
According to the baseline scenario, the IMF forecasts inflation rate to be 7.4 per cent in 2012, 6.7 per cent in 2013, 6.5 per cent in 2014, 6.5 per cent in 2015 and 6 per cent in 2016.
Current account balance is estimated to be 18.8 per cent of GDP in 2012, 15.1 per cent - 2013, 11 per cent - 2014, 8.4 per cent - 2015 and 6.7 per cent in 2016.
Oil Fund assets according to the IMF forecast will amount to $33.8 billion in 2012, $37.4 billion in 2013, $41.8 billion in 2014, $47.2 billion in 2015 and $54 billion in 2016.
When making crisis scenario, the IMF took into account risks with regard to oil prices and regional development. Nevertheless, the IMF believes assets of the Oil Fund should ensure sufficient buffer against possible shocks including sustainable and dramatic decrease of oil prices to $50 per barrel.
In case of the crisis scenario, the IMF forecasts GDP growth of Azerbaijan to be 3.8 per cent in 2012, 1.5 per cent in 2013, 2.1 per cent in 2014, 2.1 per cent in 2015 and 2.1 per cent in 2016.
The IMF estimates growth of oil GDP to be the same in this case like in the baseline scenario.
The IMF forecasts non-oil GDP growth to be 6.2 per cent in 2012, 4.8 per cent in 2013, 3.8 per cent in 2014, 3.6 per cent in 2015 and 3.6 per cent in 2016.
According to the crisis scenario, the IMF forecasts inflation rate to be 7.7 per cent in 2012, 5.8 per cent in 2013, 5.3 per cent in 2014, 5.1 per cent in 2015 and 5.3 per cent in 2016.
According to the forecast, current account balance will decrease by 0.4 per cent of GDP in 2012, 0.5 per cent in 2013, 1.2 per cent in 2014, 2.4 per cent - 2015 and 3.3 per cent in 2016.
Oil Fund assets according to the IMF forecast may decrease to $22.7 billion in 2012, $15.7 billion in 2013, $9.7 billion in 2014, $4.8 billion in 2015 and $1 billion in 2016.