Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept. 5 / Trend /
Rufiz Hafizoglu, head of Trend's Arabic news service
There is no doubt that after the resolution on Syria adopted by the Congress, the U.S will begin operations in Syria. This intervention will likely begin in late September.
Such a decision was really expected because refusal to support Obama could be regarded in the international arena as U.S indecision. But if one specifies the beginning of a military intervention, it is nothing but a struggle among Turkey and the Arab states with the Syria-Iran-Hezbollah-Iraq bloc.
Most political analysts say that war plan is similar to that of Iraq. But despite the identical characteristics of both plans, there are more distinguishing features, at least because, despite the interests of many neighboring countries, the active struggle began in Iraq after the invasion of coalition forces in the country and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.
We have witnessed an active struggle and confrontation of the interests of neighboring countries, such as Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, as well as radical Islamic groups, since the conflict began in Syria.
The struggle against Bashar al-Assad's government, inspired by the Arab spring, changed its direction after radical Islamist groups entered the country.
Hezbollah's struggle, which supported the country's government in the Syrian conflict, against the opposition members has completely changed the direction of the conflict and turned it into a conflict between religious currents that mainly serves the interests of the two countries in the region - Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The expectations that Hezbollah would support Hamas in 2008, which would weaken the Lebanese movement in military operations carried out by Israel against Hamas in Gaza were not justified.
On the contrary, there are favorable conditions in Syria today for the implementation of the plan to weaken Hezbollah because this time Al Qaeda, rather than the Israeli army, is struggling against it. Al Qaeda, created on an ideological basis, does not recognize any rules.
While considering support for the regime in Syria as a sacred duty, Hezbollah made the most unforgivable political mistake since its establishment. Hezbollah dragged Syria and Lebanon into the conflict among religious currents.
But this does not mean that the military intervention in Syria will fully weaken Hezbollah. Hezbollah militants are expected to leave Syrian territory during the military intervention.
Iran's full military support for Damascus during the upcoming military invasion in Syria causes anxiety. But it is still unlikely because Tehran has much more opportunities for maneuvers than Ankara, which is one of the most active parties in the Syrian conflict.
Many experts are regarding the statement of 170 Iranian MPs in support of the Syrian government and the willingness to fight against the military intervention and ex-President Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement against Assad as a split in Iran over the Syrian issue.
But it is absolutely clear that this is not so. In fact, Iran's ambivalent attitude to the issue is an open message to the West. It turns out that either the West must face Iran in Syria or go compromise with Tehran over Iran's nuclear program.
But Turkey will suffer most of all as a result of the military intervention in Syria. It is known that despite the split on the Syrian issue in the opposition of many Muslim countries, it does not use this card against the authorities of the country as opposed to Turkey.
The current situation in Turkey makes it possible to say that the attitude of the opposition on Syria and the military intervention in the country will at best lead to the political unrest in the country.