This November, Baku will stand at the heart of global diplomacy as it hosts the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29). Expectations for the summit are high, with a sense of optimism that a critical breakthrough on climate finance is within reach. Yet, the conference unfolds against the backdrop of global instability, where the lines between climate challenges and international security concerns blur more than ever before.
For Azerbaijan, hosting COP29 marks more than just a seat at the table of climate negotiations—it’s a symbol of the country’s emergence from decades of conflict as a proactive global player. Baku has put forward the bold proposal of a "Climate Truce," drawing on the ancient tradition of the Olympic truce, to urge world leaders to set aside conflicts and focus on the shared existential threat posed by climate change. As former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown aptly stated, “The idea of a Climate Truce is not merely a gesture—it’s a necessity. The planet cannot wait for conflicts to end before we begin the urgent task of saving it.”
Baku: Bridging Peace and Climate Action
The fact that COP29 is being held in Baku is itself a diplomatic victory, made possible by a series of breakthrough negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia—two nations locked in conflict for decades. These talks represent a profound lesson in how diplomacy, even in the most fraught situations, can open new doors for cooperation. Richard Haass, a senior foreign policy advisor at the Brookings Institution, observed, “The negotiations between Baku and Yerevan marked a watershed moment for the region, showing that pragmatism and diplomacy can transform entrenched conflicts into opportunities for constructive collaboration.”
Azerbaijan’s successful bid to host COP29, with Armenia’s support, was part of a wider diplomatic breakthrough that also saw Armenia join the Eastern European Group Bureau of the United Nations. This momentous agreement culminated in the signing of a joint declaration in December 2023, setting the foundation for peaceful interstate relations between the two countries and marking a significant step toward lasting peace in the South Caucasus.
The Broader Stakes of COP29
While the spotlight in Baku will be on climate, the larger geopolitical stakes are impossible to ignore. The role of Azerbaijan as the host is not just a regional achievement, but a global statement about how the country is positioning itself as a bridge between East and West, between developed and developing nations. Climate finance—particularly for the world's most vulnerable economies—will dominate the agenda, and Azerbaijan’s role as a mediator between the interests of the global North and South could be pivotal.
Former U.S. President Barack Obama, speaking at last year’s UN Climate Forum, highlighted the critical importance of inclusive global leadership in tackling the climate crisis. “We face the greatest challenge of our time—saving our planet. And countries like Azerbaijan are increasingly essential in balancing the interests of both the developed and developing worlds,” he said.
The Challenge of Climate Diplomacy
Azerbaijan’s hosting of COP29 has not been without controversy. Critics, particularly those with geopolitical agendas, argue that the country is using the climate platform to enhance its international image. But Azerbaijan’s long-standing efforts to pivot toward sustainable development suggest a deeper commitment to environmental progress. French climate expert Jean-Marc Jancovici remarked, “Azerbaijan has emerged as a leader in renewable energy. This is not just a political maneuver, but a necessary economic transformation for a nation seeking to diversify away from its historical dependence on hydrocarbons.”
Azerbaijan has made significant strides in investing in renewable energy, with major wind and solar projects already underway. These efforts place Baku at the forefront of the regional climate transition and underscore its potential as a key player in global climate talks.
COP29 as a Turning Point for Azerbaijan and the World
COP29 in Baku is more than just a gathering of world leaders—it represents a historic opportunity for Azerbaijan to solidify its role as both a regional peace broker and a global climate advocate. The success of the summit will hinge on the ability of negotiators to find common ground on pressing issues like climate finance, the transition to renewable energy, and the broader geopolitical dynamics at play in the South Caucasus.
Having overcome decades of conflict and emerging as a center for climate diplomacy, Azerbaijan exemplifies how even the most divided regions can build a peaceful and sustainable future. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres noted in anticipation of the summit, “Peace begins with sustainable development.” And in the lead-up to COP29, Azerbaijan’s leadership in both climate action and diplomacy is more important than ever.
Challenges on the Road to Stability
Despite the progress made in negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, substantial hurdles remain on the path to a lasting peace. One of the most significant barriers is Armenia’s constitution, which still asserts territorial claims over Nagorno-Karabakh—a long-standing source of tension between the two nations. As American political analyst Steven Cook notes, "Armenia’s historical territorial claims continue to obstruct the realization of stable peace in the South Caucasus."
This constitutional issue is compounded by the militarization of Armenia by Western countries, particularly France. Azerbaijan views these actions as a direct threat to the fragile peace process. Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman underscored this concern, stating, "Instability in the region is often exacerbated by external actors, and any escalation in military support risks unraveling the tenuous progress toward peace."
The Internal Complexity of Armenian Politics
Another challenge to peace talks is the fragmented political landscape within Armenia itself. While the official government in Yerevan leads negotiations, a variety of opposition groups and the powerful Armenian diaspora often push more hardline positions. Diaspora organizations, particularly those in the U.S. and France, aggressively lobby for their interests, which frequently diverge from the official stance of the Armenian authorities. As Caucasus expert Thomas de Waal of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace observes, "The different factions within Armenian politics sometimes coordinate, but more often they act independently, making it difficult for Baku to navigate meaningful dialogue."
Opposition factions, many composed of veterans from the first Karabakh war, remain vocal proponents of renewed military engagement, increasing the risk of reigniting conflict. These groups have a significant influence on public opinion and government policy in Armenia, further complicating the delicate peace process.
Azerbaijan’s Climate Agenda
Azerbaijan’s role as the host of COP29 has not gone without criticism. Geopolitical opponents have accused Baku of using the climate agenda to elevate its international standing. However, Azerbaijan’s long-term commitment to transitioning toward a sustainable economy tells a different story. As Jean-Marc Jancovici, a leading French energy and climate expert, puts it, "Azerbaijan has demonstrated leadership in the shift toward renewable energy. This is not simply a political maneuver but an economic imperative for a nation striving to reduce its reliance on hydrocarbons."
Today, Azerbaijan is investing heavily in renewable energy projects, including large-scale wind and solar initiatives. This positions the country not only at the forefront of the region’s environmental efforts but also as a key player in the global dialogue on climate change.
COP29: Hopes and Expectations
Climate finance will take center stage at COP29, and as the host nation, Azerbaijan is poised to play a pivotal role in fostering dialogue between developed and developing countries. One of the most pressing challenges on the international agenda is securing adequate financing for climate initiatives in developing nations. In this context, Baku stands as a critical intermediary, bridging the gap between nations with vastly different economic capabilities and climate priorities.
As former U.S. President Barack Obama stated at last year’s UN Climate Forum, "We are facing the greatest challenge of our time—saving our planet. And the role of countries like Azerbaijan is becoming increasingly vital in balancing the interests of the global North and South." This observation underscores the importance of Azerbaijan’s position at COP29, where the country will help facilitate agreements that may shape the future of global climate policy.
A Historic Moment for Azerbaijan
For Azerbaijan, COP29 represents more than just another step in the ongoing global climate negotiations—it is a historic moment. The nation seeks to solidify its role not only as a regional leader but also as a key global player on critical issues like climate finance, energy transition, and peacebuilding. The success of this summit will hinge on the ability of participants to reach compromises on these vital topics.
Securing financing for climate projects, accelerating the shift to renewable energy, and ensuring lasting peace in the South Caucasus will be high on the agenda. Azerbaijan, having emerged from years of conflict to become a center of climate diplomacy, now exemplifies how a nation can turn from war to peace and sustainability.
A Role Model for Peace and Sustainability
The symbolism of Azerbaijan hosting COP29 cannot be overlooked. The country’s recent history of conflict resolution, paired with its ambitious climate goals, makes it a unique case study in how environmental diplomacy can serve as a pathway to peace. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted ahead of COP29, "Peace begins with sustainable development." Azerbaijan’s leadership at this critical juncture exemplifies how the intersection of climate action and diplomacy can help build a more stable and sustainable future.
With the eyes of the world on Baku, COP29 will serve as both a test of Azerbaijan’s diplomatic capabilities and a benchmark for global cooperation on climate. The outcomes of this summit could very well define the course of international climate policy in the years to come.