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EIA revises forecast for global fuels market, production expected to surge

Economy Materials 18 August 2022 13:42 (UTC +04:00)
EIA revises forecast for global fuels market, production expected to surge
Maryana Ahmadova
Maryana Ahmadova
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BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 18. Global fuel production is expected to outrun consumption in 2022, Trend reports via the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

“When consumption of liquid fuels is higher than production, prices generally rise. When production is more than consumption, prices generally decline. Due to changes in supply and demand in mid-2022, we forecast that the price of Brent crude oil will average $105 per barrel in 2022 and $95 per barrel in 2023. The price of crude oil directly affects the price of petroleum products,” the outlook said.

According to the EIA, despite being subjected to sanctions by the EU, Russia has produced more oil products than was previously expected, meaning Russia’s crude oil and about half of its petroleum products will more likely be sold to other markets. However, Russia’s production is projected to decline by 1.6 million barrels per day from the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2022 to the end of the first quarter of 2023.

The EIA also forecasts a production increase of US crude oil to an average of 11.9 million barrels per day in 2022 with a further rise to a record of 12.7 barrels per day in 2023.

Meanwhile, “Future OPEC production decisions will also affect global supply. We expect OPEC to set higher production targets in 2022 and 2023, but some OPEC member countries may not be able to meet higher production targets,” the report noted.

As for the 2023 forecast, the EIA expects global supply and demand to be almost equal, with a year-on-year increase in consumption for both 2022 and 2023.

“We forecast that [consumption] will rise to average 99.4 million barrels per day for 2022 and to average 101.5 million barrels per day for 2023. We forecast production in 2023 to average 101.3 million barrels per day,” the agency added.

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