Non-OPEC oil supply expected to grow at slower pace in 2019
Baku, Azerbaijan, July 11
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Following the robust growth of 2.91 mb/d in 2018, non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is expected to grow at a slower pace of 2.14 mb/d, y-o-y to average 64.51 mb/d, Trend reports with reference to OPEC Oil Market Report.
The 2019 supply forecast has remained unchanged in this month’s assessment, despite some downward revisions to the supply forecasts of the US, Norway and Brazil, which were offset by upward revisions in China and the UK.
Downward revisions in US 1Q19 y-o-y growth was due to lower-than-expected output by -52 tb/d compared with the previous assessment, and due to lower-than-expected production in 3Q19 and 4Q19 in Norway and Brazil, said the cartel.
At the same time, OPEC expects the production in China to recover with higher y-o-y growth, partially offsetting these declines.
“The US is expected to continue to be the main driver for non-OPEC supply growth in 2019 with 1.83 mb/d y-o-y, followed by Brazil, Russia, China, Australia, the UK, Ghana and the Sudans. Meanwhile, Mexico, Norway, Kazakhstan, Indonesia and Vietnam are projected to see the largest declines,” reads the report.
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 4.84 mb/d, while production in 2018 grew by 0.13 mb/d and averaged 4.76 mb/d, according to the cartel.
“In May 2019, OPEC crude oil production is estimated to decline by 236 tb/d m-o-m to average 29.88 mb/d, according to secondary sources. According to preliminary May data, non-OPEC supply, including OPEC NGLs, is estimated to have increased by 0.27 mb/d m-o-m to average 68.39 mb/d, up by 2.10 mb/d y-o-y. As a result, global oil supply is estimated to have slightly increased by 0.04 mb/d m-o-m to average 98.26 mb/d in May 2019,” the report says.
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