Gas demand: Significant increase in 2018 unlikely to be new normal in future
Baku, Azerbaijan, July 26
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Significant increase observed in gas demand in 2018 is unlikely to be a new normal in the future, Trend reports citing Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
“The main reasons are the slower economic growth, particularly in China, and the return to average weather conditions. Moreover, the growing level of non-typical weather-related gas consumption, especially in the US, ensured a high starting base for future projections,” reads GECF report.
Other factors, which are also not in favour of the strong natural gas demand growth to 2024, include greater penetration of renewables and efficiency gains for space heating purposes in Europe, the scale-up of solar and wind capacity in the Asia Pacific region as well as the commissioning of two nuclear reactors in South Korea, according to the analysis.
“The ramp-up of nuclear power generation in Japan represents more uncertainty and could be even challenged until the Nuclear Regulation Authority provides more details concerning the counter-terrorism compliance status and shutdown risks. Nevertheless, in our forecast we consider the gradual restart of nuclear reactors and the increase of nuclear generation, entailing lower natural gas needs,” said GECF.
With a growth rate of 1.6 percent per year, global gas demand will exceed 4.3 tcm by 2024, corresponding to the overall rise of 10 percent, reads the report.
“In terms of sectoral outlook, the power generation sector will continue to take the lead, providing more than 40 percent of gas increments, and will remain the largest natural gas consumer, accounting for 36 percent of total gas demand in 2024.”
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