BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 4. Global gas demand is expected to see a steady increase, approaching the mid-2030s, Trend reports with reference to Rystad Energy.
However, a concerning trend is emerging as currently producing and underdeveloped gas fields are projected to reach their peak production in the next few years, setting the stage for an eventual decline. Even when factoring in fields in the discovery phase and those awaiting development approval, the attainment of peak production remains a distant goal, even under the most optimistic scenarios.
A comprehensive analysis of global warming scenarios underscores the imperative for increased gas exploration and production to meet the ambitious targets of limiting global temperature rise to 1.9 or 2.5 degrees Celsius. In nearly all scenarios except the most aggressive one, which envisions a 1.6-degree increase, additional gas resources are deemed essential to meet the surging global demand. This translates to an urgent need for intensified gas exploration and augmented capital investments, particularly within renowned gas basins and gas-rich nations.
Unconventional gas sources are expected to assume a more significant role in the global energy supply mix, with estimates suggesting they could contribute to nearly a third of the world's gas production by 2030. This anticipated uptick in unconventional production primarily stems from the sustained decline in exploration success over the past decade and the scarcity of developed conventional gas projects, which has led to a decline in overall conventional gas supply.
A striking revelation is that only 32 percent of the conventional gas volumes discovered since 2010 are currently in production, while over 50 percent await the green light for development. Consequently, nations reliant on conventional gas sources find themselves at a crossroads. To achieve net-zero emissions targets and meet burgeoning global demand, they must either enhance their investments in production or increasingly turn to unconventional gas volumes.
The evolving landscape of global gas production poses both challenges and opportunities, demanding strategic decisions to balance the growing demand with sustainable energy solutions.
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