BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 18. Gas supply via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to Europe for 2023/2024 winter is expected to stand at 32 million cubic meters per day, Trend reports via the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
“Gas imports from North Africa, principally from Algeria to Spain and Italy, could average 92 MMcm/d, in line with their average over both the past 12 months and winter 2022/23. Of this North African total, Libya will account for 8 MMcm/d through the Green Stream system to Italy and the remainder will be through Algeria’s Medgaz system to Spain (23 MMcm/d) and its Transmed pipelines to Italy (61 MMcm/d). Average volumes from Algeria have remained relatively stable, with exports to Italy somewhat more volatile than exports to Spain. Azerbaijan exports to Europe via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) – as measured on the border between Turkey and Greece – have been consistent in the 30-34 MMcm/d range so we are assuming winter supply of 32 MMcm/d,” said OIES.
In 2022, amidst a decline in Russian pipeline supply and unprecedentedly high prices, Norwegian production experienced a significant boost due to the postponement of maintenance activities. Gas, typically utilized for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) by injecting it back into oil fields, was instead exported. Consequently, total Norwegian pipeline exports to Europe for the entire year reached a record 119.5 Bcm.
The repercussions of deferring maintenance and maximizing the capacity for gas production, processing, and export became apparent in the summer of 2023. The impact was further intensified by unforeseen outages, as highlighted in our Quarterly Gas Market Review series. However, as of now, the maintenance has been successfully completed.
In October and November, Norwegian pipeline exports to Europe averaged 313 MMcm/d and 344 MMcm/d, respectively. Looking ahead, we anticipate that Norwegian exports will average 335 MMcm/d over the four-month period from December to March. This projection aligns closely with the historical average for this period from 2017 to 2022 and is comparable to the winter of 2022/23.
TAP transports natural gas from the giant Shah Deniz field in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea to Europe. The 878 km long pipeline connects with the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) at the Turkish-Greek border in Kipoi, crosses Greece and Albania and the Adriatic Sea, before coming ashore in Southern Italy.
TAP facilitates gas supplies to South Eastern European countries through existing and prospective interconnectors. TAP is connected to Interconnector Greece Bulgaria (IGB) which started its commercial operations in October 2022, providing Caspian gas to Bulgaria, enhancing security of energy supplies in one more European country. TAP’s exits in Greece and Albania, together with the landfall in Italy provide multiple opportunities for further transport of gas from Azerbaijan to the wider European markets.
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