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Dynamics of changes in some economic

Analysis Materials 2 September 2009 12:12 (UTC +04:00)

As a result of trades on Aug. 28, on the New York Mercantile Exchange the price of futures for WTI crude oil with delivery in October rose by $0.25 to $72.74 per barrel. On the InterContinental Exchange in London, the October contract for Brent Crude oil rose in price by $0.28 to $72.79 per barrel.

The final value of the August consumer sentiment index, run by University of Michigan, has pleased investors, who unexpectedly found themselves above the values predicted by analysts. Unlike preliminary figures disclosed two weeks earlier (63.2 points), the final figure was at 65.7 points (compared to 64 points, expected by experts).

Despite that in August the consumer sentiment deteriorated slightly compared to July (66 points), the growth inspired the participants of the oil market, which testified the recovery of the U.S. economy. The resumption of economic recovery leads to an increase in demand for oil and oil products.

Positive news came from Europe as well. According to data provided by the European Commission, confidence regarding the prospects of the economy in countries outside the Euro-zone has grown up to ten-month maximum. Meanwhile, further evidence of global economic recovery has become the world index MSCI World, which increased by 59 percent over the past six months.

In addition, according to estimates by PetroLogistics Ltd., which tracks the movement of tankers, oil production in 11 countries, involving quotas, even more deviated from the prescribed levels. In July, the volume of oil production in these countries amounted to an average of 26 million compared to 25.96 million barrels per day, and taking into account Iraq's production, the production has increased from 28.3 million to 28.6 million barrels per day. Recall that last year, the cartel decided to cut oil production as a whole at 4.2 million barrels per day, as a result of which the total quota reduced to 24.85 million barrels per day.

Currency market

Last week the official rate of the manat against the US dollar, set by the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, consolidated 0.0002 points or 0.02 percent. The average rate was established at 0. 0.80398 manats to 1 U.S. dollar. 

Last week the maximum rate of the US dollar compared to manat was established on Aug. 27 (0. 8041 manats to 1 U.S. dollar) and minimum on Aug. 24 and 28 (0.8039 manats to 1 U.S. dollar).

As a result of last week's exchange rate of the Azerbaijani manat to the U.S. dollar, established based on results from the Baku Inter-bank Currency Exchange (BICEX), consolidated by 0.0001 points (0.01 percent). The average rate was fixed at 0.80362 to 1 U.S. dollar.

Deals concluded last week at BEST with transition to currency (T+0) comprised: On Aug. 24, no deals were concluded and so, the average sustained rate was the same - 0. 8037 manats to 1 U.S. dollar, Aug. 25, $1.8 million with the average sustained rate of 0. 8036 manats to 1 U.S., Aug. 26, $3.09 million with the average sustained rate of 0. 8036 manats to 1 U.S. dollar, on Aug. 27, $0.135 million with the average sustained rate of 0. 8036 manats to 1 U.S. dollar and on Aug. 28, $2.5 million with the average sustained rate of 0. 8036 manats to 1 U.S. dollar.

No deal was concluded with USD/AZN T+1, T+2 and SWAP_USD/AZN due to an absence of appeals by dealers. Appeals were not received on RUB/AZN and EUR/AZN (Ň+1, Ň+2).

Market of privatization shares

Last week the price of the privatization vouchers remained the same: purchase was 7 manats, and sale - 8 manats. Prices remain the same for several months, which is explained by reduction of rates of state property privatization, as the State Property Committee is currently undergoing structural transformation.

The validity period of the vouchers will expire on Jan. 1 2010. So far, around 75 percent of vouchers has been derived, and another extension of their validity period remains uncertain

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